segunda-feira, maio 29, 2017

"muita areia para a camioneta de muitos"

À atenção de todos os totós de todos os quadrantes políticos e empresariais que anseiam e pedem uma  estratégia central para o país: lembrem-se, se alguém tivesse essa estratégia, se ela existisse, por que é que não a executaria ele próprio?
"Why does a logical strategy, methodically implemented by competent people, not succeed better? Active capital allocation carries a danger: it can be procyclical, magnifying the swings in sentiment that most industries face. Businesses that are performing well often have profits that are at cyclical highs and that are valued at inflated levels. As Warren Buffett puts it, “What is smart at one price is dumb at another.”
Bucking accepted wisdom is, however, extraordinarily hard for CEOs of big, iconic firms, who must built a consensus among executives, directors and shareholders.
The cost of churning capital in predictable ways can be significant.
A company’s capital expenditure can also be pro cyclical.
For businesses in aggregate, and their investors, churning portfolios brings some benefits. Firms must respond to changes in customer tastes and technology. They may be able to boost their market shares for some products, allowing them to raise prices. But it seems unlikely that hyperactive capital allocation greatly enhances wealth overall. Deals are often a zero-sum game. It is impossible for every firm to own only outperforming businesses. And the fees lawyers and bankers charge are a tax on corporate activity that corrodes value."
E não esquecer:

Claro que isto é muita areia para a camioneta de muitos. Estratégia é acreditar no optimismo não-documentado e sem rede!

Trechos retirados de "Jeff Immelt’s record shows the pitfalls of capital allocation"

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