quarta-feira, maio 18, 2016

Não há certeza de nada

"in strategy there is no single right answer to find. Strategy requires making choices about an uncertain future. It is not possible, no matter how much of the ocean you boil, to discover the one right answer. There isn’t one."
"What was the best strategy in the end? What Lindgren found was that this is a nonsensical question. In an evolutionary system such as Lindgren's model, there is no single winner, no optimal, no best strategy. Rather, anyone who is alive at a particular point in time, is in effect a winner, because everyone else is dead. To be alive at all, an agent must have a strategy with something going for it, some way of making a living, defending against competitors, and dealing with the vagaries of its environment.

Likewise, we cannot say any single strategy in the Prisoner's Dilemma ecology was a winner. Lindgren's model showed that once in a while, a particular strategy would rise up, dominate the game for a while, have its day in the sun, and then inevitably be brought down by some innovative competitor. Sometimes, several strategies shared the limelight, battling for "market share" control of the game board, and then an outsider would come in and bring them all down. During other periods, two strategies working as a symbiotic pair would rise up together—but then if one got into trouble, both collapsed."
E em "Doing Everything Right Still Won't Make You a Winner":
"Just because you do everything right doesn’t mean that you’re still going to win.
Doing what is right doesn’t mean that nothing wrong is going to come into your life.
You don’t get an automatic entry to the podium just because you gave it your all."
Julgo que isto é muito difícil de perceber por pessoas com ideias feitas ainda que não tenham capacidade de idear, como dizia Ortega Y Gasset. Isto é o que torna a estratégia interessante, não há certeza de nada. O que é verdade hoje no mundo de hoje pode ser mentira amanhã no mundo de amanhã.

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