"Not all bubbles, it would appear, are equally bad. According to two new papers, the crucial variable that separates relatively harmless frenzies from disastrous ones is debt.
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Writing for the National Bureau of Economic Research, Oscar Jorda, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor examine bubbles in housing and equity markets over the past 140 years. The most dangerous, they conclude, are housing bubbles fuelled by credit booms. The least troublesome are equity bubbles that do not rely on debt. Five years after the bursting of a debt-laden housing bubble, the authors find, GDP per person is nearly 8% lower than after a “normal” recession (ie, one that is not accompanied by a financial crisis). In contrast, five years after a stockmarket crash, GDP per person is only 1% or so lower. If the stock bubble comes alongside a big rise in debt, the damage to GDP per person is 4%.
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In a paper for the Centre for Economic Policy Research, Markus Brunnermeier and Isabel Schnabel take an even longer view, examining 400 years of asset-price bubbles. Be it tulips, land, housing, derivatives or shares, they find that the consequences of a bursting bubble depend less on the type of asset than on how it is financed. High leverage is the telltale sign of trouble."
Trechos retirados de "Sorry to burst your bubble"
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