segunda-feira, janeiro 13, 2014

Acerca dos cenários

"scenarios are our humble way to look at the futures. By using the scenario technique, we admit that we do not know what is happening in the futures (which is so true!). We admit that we have to prepared for various situations when the time passes. In one sentence: scenarios help us to be flexible enough to cope with various situations in the future.
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they'll help us to be prepared for alternative futures and they question our persistent beliefs about the futures.
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scenarios, help us also to innovate the futures possible to us by helping to break our mental models and by that, at the best, to encourage us to create something new.
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scenarios are like wind tunnels for strategy.
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The process, the phase of making the scenarios leads us to seek for information about the future, weak signals, trends, wild cards etc. and think about the possibilities of combinations of these elements. The process of information seeking and processing is surely going to be useful to any organization. Also, scenarios are able to break the mental models of organizations and enhance what I have named organizational futures learning.
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The end result, scenarios or the views of the future world are of course useful for communicating the possibilities of the futures to the stakeholders. But they have even more valuable benefit: they create other futures processes.
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Scenarios are for challenging the organizations collective view of what is going to happen in the future. Their purpose is to challenge us to be prepared for events and situations that break our expected futures.

Trechos retirados de "Scenarios: Process and Outcome"
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Imagem retirada de "Morgan Stanley Blue Paper - Capital Goods: 3D Printing"

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