quinta-feira, junho 06, 2013

A libertação

"And yet, there is I propose just such a common thread: a shared causality mindset, a globally predominant belief in the supremacy of cause and effect.
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Since it is people who run our institutions, this belief continues to shape our modern society and even influence to a large extent the technological outcrops of our knowledge economy. From business strategy to macroeconomic models, and from political debates to Big Data, causality is pervasive and its implications profound.
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For the benefit of humanity at large, the predominant causal mindset is about to expand and make room for something else: post-causality.
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the events and circumstances we now face are increasingly beyond the grasp of causality.
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Big Data fits a causal, categorization model of the world, more suited for exploitation of the past than exploration of the future. And so, Martin continues, “if your intent is to invent the future, data from the past is as much of a hindrance as a help”. Causality works well for explaining the past, but fails when it comes to creating the future. Finally, Martin makes the point that analytic (i.e. causal/categorization) models cannot substitute for common sense and judgment: “data analysis will never, ever be more than an aid to judgment; anytime it is taken to be ‘the answer’, trouble will ensue”. Here is the causality mindset driving a huge investment in a technology that may make us more efficient in the short-term but possibly less effective in the long-run.
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For the population at large, I would recommend embracing post-causality, and pondering carefully what thought leaders have to say, especially when they appear to say similar things. Post causality is not equivalent to chaos and should not be feared as such. It rather represents the liberation from mechanistic thinking that uses human capital for activities situated below its true potential, even when they are deemed as “knowledge work”. Yes, not having a prescribed framework where the data always fits the problem nicely is a bit daunting, but no more so than repeatedly applying prescription remedies without room to express personality."
Trechos retirados de "Post-causality: a quiet global revolution in the making"

1 comentário:

notes disse...

Pura poesia:

"I contend that educating the customer is much more financially profitable in the long run. Shifting the problem type has the potential for generating “step functions” in terms of revenue. That is because efficiency is quantitative in nature and therefore amenable to linear growth (there is a limit to “how much”), while effectiveness is a qualitative function that can generate non-linear growth. The risk for not challenging the customer on “the right thing” to be working on is that “doing things right” may not generate results, and ultimately lead to a loss of the contract."

http://lnedelescu.wordpress.com/2013/04/30/druckers-doing-the-right-thing-sales/#more-2047