quarta-feira, agosto 03, 2011
A "Grande Contracção"!
Também gostei do termo recalibração.
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"Why is everyone still referring to the recent financial crisis as the “Great Recession”? The term, after all, is predicated on a dangerous misdiagnosis of the problems that confront the United States and other countries, leading to bad forecasts and bad policy.
The phrase “Great Recession” creates the impression that the economy is following the contours of a typical recession, only more severe – something like a really bad cold. That is why, throughout this downturn, forecasters and analysts who have tried to make analogies to past post-war U.S. recessions have gotten it so wrong.
Moreover, too many policymakers have relied on the belief that, at the end of the day, this is just a deep recession that can be subdued by a generous helping of conventional policy tools, whether fiscal policy or massive bailouts.
But the real problem is that the global economy is badly overleveraged, and there is no quick escape without a scheme to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors, either through defaults, financial repression, or inflation.
A more accurate, if less reassuring, term for the ongoing crisis is the “Second Great Contraction.”
...
The contraction applies not only to output and employment, as in a normal recession, but to debt and credit, and the deleveraging that typically takes many years to complete.
...
Many commentators have argued that fiscal stimulus has largely failed not because it was misguided, but because it was not large enough to fight a “Great Recession.” But, in a “Great Contraction,” problem number one is too much debt. If governments that retain strong credit ratings are to spend scarce resources effectively, the most effective approach is to catalyze debt workouts and reductions." (Moi ici: Tanta asneira feita, tanta asneira. Há trechos do livro de César das Neves "As 10 Questões da Crise" que relatam factualmente decisões dos governos portugueses nos últimos anos. Se fizessem parte do guião de um filme não seriam aceites por serem demasiado inverossímeis dada a quantidade e sucessão de asneiras)
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Trechos retirados de "The Second Great Contraction"
.
"Why is everyone still referring to the recent financial crisis as the “Great Recession”? The term, after all, is predicated on a dangerous misdiagnosis of the problems that confront the United States and other countries, leading to bad forecasts and bad policy.
The phrase “Great Recession” creates the impression that the economy is following the contours of a typical recession, only more severe – something like a really bad cold. That is why, throughout this downturn, forecasters and analysts who have tried to make analogies to past post-war U.S. recessions have gotten it so wrong.
Moreover, too many policymakers have relied on the belief that, at the end of the day, this is just a deep recession that can be subdued by a generous helping of conventional policy tools, whether fiscal policy or massive bailouts.
But the real problem is that the global economy is badly overleveraged, and there is no quick escape without a scheme to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors, either through defaults, financial repression, or inflation.
A more accurate, if less reassuring, term for the ongoing crisis is the “Second Great Contraction.”
...
The contraction applies not only to output and employment, as in a normal recession, but to debt and credit, and the deleveraging that typically takes many years to complete.
...
Many commentators have argued that fiscal stimulus has largely failed not because it was misguided, but because it was not large enough to fight a “Great Recession.” But, in a “Great Contraction,” problem number one is too much debt. If governments that retain strong credit ratings are to spend scarce resources effectively, the most effective approach is to catalyze debt workouts and reductions." (Moi ici: Tanta asneira feita, tanta asneira. Há trechos do livro de César das Neves "As 10 Questões da Crise" que relatam factualmente decisões dos governos portugueses nos últimos anos. Se fizessem parte do guião de um filme não seriam aceites por serem demasiado inverossímeis dada a quantidade e sucessão de asneiras)
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Trechos retirados de "The Second Great Contraction"
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3 comentários:
Nunca esquecer as palavras desta casta de normandos http://balancedscorecard.blogspot.com/2008/12/outro-arrepio-e-revolta.html
http://www.newsneconomics.com/2011/08/euro-area-bond-crisis-in-charts.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/02/greece-family-ties-debt-crisis
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