Para reflexão

Não sei se o tom armagedónico do final do artigo de Evans-Pritchard é possível:
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"More hedge funds will join the EMU divergence play, betting that the North-South split has gone beyond the point of no return for a currency union. This will enrage the Eurogroup. Brussels will dust down its paper exploring the legal basis for capital controls. Italy's Giulio Tremonti will suggest using EU terror legislation against "speculators".

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Wage cuts will prove a self-defeating policy for Club Med, trapping them in textbook debt-deflation. The victims will start to notice this. Articles will appear in the Greek, Spanish, and Portuguese press airing doubts about EMU. Eurosceptic professors will be ungagged. Heresy will spread into mainstream parties.
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Greece's Prime Minister Papandréou will balk at EMU immolation . The Hellenic Socialists will call Europe's bluff, extracting loans that gain time but solve nothing. Berlin will climb down and pay, but only once: thereafter, Zum Teufel.
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In the end, the Euro's fate will be decided by strikes, street protest, and car bombs as the primacy of politics returns. I doubt that 2010 will see the denouement, but the mood music will be bad enough to knock the euro off its stilts."

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No entanto, não posso estar mais de acordo com o início do artigo:

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"As the great bear rally of 2009 runs into the greater Chinese Wall of excess global capacity (Moi ici: Basta voltar aos esquemas deste postal), it will become clear that we are in the grip of a 21st Century Depression – more akin to Japan's Lost Decade than the 1840s or 1930s, but nothing like the normal cycles of the post-War era. The surplus regions (China, Japan, Germania, Gulf ) have not increased demand (Moi ici: Reparem na demografia da China, Japão e Alemanha. Quem é que consome mais, a juventude ou a terceira idade?) enough to compensate for belt-tightening in the deficit bloc (Anglo-sphere, Club Med, East Europe), and fiscal adrenalin is already fading in Europe. The vast East-West imbalances that caused the credit crisis are no better a year later, and perhaps worse (Moi ici: Ontem, no twitter, Tom Peters escreveu "I am a credentialed, fire-breathing, anti-protectionist. But, and there is a but, current exchange rate imbalance with China not sutainable." E o que Martin Wolf escreveu recentemente). Household debt as a share of GDP sits near record levels in two-fifths of the world economy. Our long purge has barely begun. That is the elephant in the global tent."

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