O regresso à terra? (parte II)

Há cerca de um mês escrevemos: O regresso à terra?
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Nos States, Roubini avança com uma possível contracção da economia, no próximo ano, de cerca de 5-6% ("Another batch of worse than awful news greeted today Americans getting ready for the Thanksgiving holiday: free falling consumption spending, collapsing new homes sales, falling consumer confidence, very high initial claims for unemployment benefits, collapsing orders for durable goods. It is hard to get any worse than this but the next few months will serve even worse macro news. At this rate of contraction as revealed by the latest data it would not be surprising if fourth quarter GDP were to fall at an annualized rate of 5-6%.")
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No Telegraph já li previsões de contracção da economia britânica em 2-3% no próximo ano.
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A OCDE também não é meiga ("The downturn is expected to be severe in economies most vulnerable to the financial crisis or to sharp house price falls. These include Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain, Turkey and the UK.")
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Por isso o retorno à terra não é assim tão imprevísivel: "Depression 2009: What would it look like?"
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"The migrations kicked off by a depression wouldn't be in one direction, but a tangle of demographic crosscurrents: young families moving back to their hometowns to live with the grandparents when they can no longer afford to live on their own, parents moving in with their adult children when their postretirement fixed incomes can no longer support them. Some parts of the country, especially the Rust Belt, could see a wholesale depopulation as the last remnants of the American heavy-manufacturing base die out.
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"There will be some cities like Detroit that in a real depression could just become ghost towns,""