Uma estratégia nunca é eterna

Eric Beinhocker no seu "The Origin of Wealth" escreveu:
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“Likewise, we cannot say any single strategy in the Prisioner’s Dilemma ecology was a winner. .
Lindgren’s model showed that once in a while, a particular strategy would rise up, dominate the game for a while, have its day in the sun, and then inevitably be brought down by some innovative competitor. Sometimes, several strategies shared the limelight, battling for “market share” control of the game board, and then an outsider would come in and bring them all down. During other periods, two strategies working as a symbiotic pair would rise up together – but then if one got into trouble, both collapsed.”
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“We discovered that there is no one best strategy; rather, the evolutionary process creates an ecosystem of strategies – an ecosystem that changes over time in Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction.”
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Lembrei-me deste trecho a propósito deste artigo do jornal Telegraph "Fresh and Wild closes store as consumers reject organic for cheaper deals"
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Quem são os clientes-alvo? Qual é o seu comportamento? Rejeitam a "organic food" por questões de orçamento ou encontram essa "organic food" em fornecedores alternativos?
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Aquilo que era verdade ontem, amanhã deixa de fazer sentido.
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No livro "Creative Destruction - Why Companies That Are Built to Last Underperform the Market - and How to Successfully Transform Them", Richard Foster e Sarah Kaplan descrevem o mercado desta forma:
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"Markets... lacking culture, leadership, and emotions, do not experience the bursts of desperation, depression, denial, and hope that corporations face. The market has no lingering memories or remorse. It has no mental models, or dilution. It simply waits for the forces at play to work out - for new companies to be created and for acquisitions to clear the field. The markets silently allow weaker companies to be put up for sale and leaves it to the new owners to shap them up or shut them down.
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Lacking production-oriented control systems, markets create more surprise and innovation than do corporations. They operate on the assumption of discontinuity, and accommodate continuity. Corporations, on the other hand, assume continuity and attempt to accommodate discontinuity. The difference is profound."
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Por isso é que as estratégias intuitivas, baseadas no preço-baixo que resultaram tão bem na década de 80 e na primeira metade da década de 90 do século passado, falharam clamorosamente quando o mundo mudou, com a abertura da economia na Europa de Leste e com a adesão da China à organização mundial do comércio.
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Não há estratégias eternas.