sexta-feira, abril 18, 2008

Se não estivéssemos no euro...

O DN de hoje inclui o artigo "Banca deve 56% do PIB ao exterior", assinado por Rudolfo Rebêlo.
"A febre dos portugueses pelos empréstimos bancários está a levar os banqueiros a endividarem-se no exterior, a aumentar as responsabilidades financeira do País e a fazer disparar o défice externo. Os cifrões são inimagináveis...Os dinheiros em dívida e os compromissos do País no estrangeiro já ultrapassam os 148,7 mil milhões de euros, o equivalente a criação de riqueza em 11 meses de árduo trabalho dos portugueses (91,3% do PIB). Deste montante, as dívidas (compromissos) da banca portuguesa no estrangeiro já atingem os 91,6 mil milhões de euros, 56% da riqueza do País. Este é o resultado de contratações de empréstimos para compra de casas próprias e de bens de consumo, como carros e electrodomésticos, resultante da queda das taxas de juro na última década."
Se não estivéssemos no euro, já nos tinha acontecido o que está a acontecer à Islândia:
"So how did Iceland get in so much trouble? That’s the odd part of the story: it isn’t because its banks gambled on the worthless subprime securities that helped undo Bear Stearns and so many others. Iceland’s banks prudently avoided the subprime market, even as they embarked on a lending boom at home and expanded abroad. What got Iceland in trouble was something more subtle: its banks got their money primarily from international investors, making the Icelandic miracle heavily dependent on foreign capital.
In normal times, this might not have mattered, given the country’s solid economic fundamentals. But these aren’t normal times. The subprime crisis, in which investors realized that they had greatly underestimated the risks of lending to people with bad credit, has spawned a wider credit crunch: investors now suspect disaster behind every door, and even seemingly solid borrowers find credit much harder to come by. The subprime crisis was an earthquake that caused a tsunami: the quake has done plenty of damage on its own, but the tsunami looks set to do even more.
Iceland has been swamped by that tsunami because it trusted in the availability of global credit in time for that credit to evaporate. And the fact that Iceland has been so dependent on foreign investors makes those investors even more skittish about investing there: in markets, weakness often begets weakness."
Inflacção sobe, moeda desvaloriza, taxas de juro sobem... "inflation is approximately 5 percentage points higher than projected in November. Second, the current forecast assumes that the exchange rate of the króna will be 27% lower in the second quarter than was projected in November" (aqui).
"According to the baseline forecast, inflation will peak at close to 11% in the third quarter of 2008. It will slow down rather rapidly beginning in the fourth quarter of 2009 and align with target a year later, in the third quarter of 2010 (see Chart I-5d). The policy rate rises by further 0.75 percentage points and starts to move downward again in the fourth quarter of 2008 and is expected to reach neutrality when the inflation target is attained.
This process will inevitably be accompanied by an economic downturn. GDP is projected to drop by 2½% in 2009 and by 1½% in 2010. The contraction in national expenditure will be even greater, just over 3% in both years."

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