Sarasvathy (parte I)

Interrompi a leitura do artigo "Markets as configurations" de Kaj Storbacka e Suvi Nenonen, publicado pelo European Journal of Marketing Vol. 45 No. 172, 2011, pp. 221-258, por causa das referências a um nome, Sarasvathy, e a um tema: o empreendedorismo.
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Primeiro uma pesquisa na net deu origem a este interessante artigo "MBAs vs. Entrepreneurs":
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"Causal reasoning, she explains, "begins with a pre-determined goal and a given set of means, and seeks to identify the optimal—fastest, cheapest, most efficient, etc.—alternative to achieve that goal." This is the world of exhaustive business plans, microscopic ROI calculations, and portfolio diversification.

Effectual reasoning, on the other hand, "does not begin with a specific goal. Instead, it begins with a given set of means and allows goals to emerge contingently over time from the varied imagination and diverse aspirations of the founders and the people they interact with." This is the world of bootstrapping, rapid prototyping, and guerilla marketing. (Moi ici: E o que é preciso para prosperar em Mongo? O mundo das produção em série e da escala não é para nós, nem que seja pelo temperamento. Além disso, vai ter cada vez menos peso e atracção)

The more Sarasvathy explains the differences in the two styles of thinking, the more obvious it becomes which style matches the times. Causal reasoning is about how much you expect to gain; effectual reasoning is about how much you can afford to lose. Causal reasoning revolves around competitive analysis and zero-sum logic; effectual reasoning embraces networks and partnerships. (Moi ici: Cath stuff, diria Arroja) Causal reasoning "urges the exploitation of pre-existing knowledge"; effectual reasoning stresses the inevitability of surprises and the leveraging of options.

The difference in mindset, Sarasvathy concludes, boils down to a different take on the future. "Causal reasoning is based on the logic, To the extent that we can predict the future, we can control it," she writes. That's why MBAs and big companies spend so much time on focus groups, market research, and statistical models. "Effectual reasoning, however, is based on the logic, To the extent that we can control the future, we do not need to predict it." How do you control the future? By inventing it yourself (Moi ici: YES!!! Aprendi isso com Drucker, a melhor forma de prever o futuro é criá-lo) — marshalling scarce resources, understanding that surprises are to be expected rather than avoided, reacting to them fast."
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E encontrei a referência mencionada no artigo, um livro chamado "Effectuation - Elements of Entrepreneurial Expertise".
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Continua.