Acerca das consequências do proteccionismo

Ao longo dos anos tenho usado aqui o exemplo do Brasil no que diz respeito às consequências do proteccionismo. Por exemplo:

• Junho de 2019 - Um futuro melhor será construído, com sofrimento
• Fevereiro de 2017 - Cabeças afuniladas (já na altura se escrevia sobre "This means that if the Trump administration imposes tariffs, it will turn the US into a high-cost island for industrial inputs.")
• Janeiro de 2013 - Aumentar o "producer surplus", o caminho menos percorrido (parte l)

Entretanto, no WSJ de ontem um artigo, "Brazil Offers Clues on Protectionist Impact", que usa o Brasil como exemplo do que pode acontecer aos Estados Unidos por causa das tarifas alfandegárias.

"The Apple iPhone is assembled in this country, most cars on Brazilian roads are made in local factories, and the biggest employers are homegrown giants. But a bottle of Veuve Clicquot Champagne costs about $110. A box of British PG Tips tea bags-$53. Canadian maple syrup? $35. 

They are all part of an economy that has some of the world's highest import duties, imposes currency controls and erects a host of other trade barriers. Brazil provides a glimpse into an economic system similar to President Trump's vision for imposing the highest tariffs in decades on nearly every country.

Brazil's World War II-era policy of protectionism has kept some jobs home but has driven up costs for consumers and, according to economists, stifled competition and innovation. That iPhone 16 made in Brazil costs nearly twice as much as a Chinese-made model sold in the U.S. for $799. The strategy has done little to boost Brazil's industrial production. On the contrary, it has lowered productivity and led to some notorious price-fixing scandals, economists said. 

...

A vast internal market has proven to be a blessing and a curse. Brazil has relied on domestic consumption during external economic crises, from the oil shocks of the 1970s to the 2008-09 financial crisis. But it has also bred complacency and protectionism during more prosperous times, ultimately making goods more expensive for consumers.

"They never felt the competitive pressure to innovate and to reduce costs and to find a way to survive in a competitive market," said Alberto Ramos, head of Latin America economics research at Goldman Sachs."

Nenhuma novidade, tudo já escrito naqueles postais referidos acima: tarifas elevadas podem proteger empregos no curto prazo, mas sufocam a produtividade, afastam a inovação e penalizam o consumidor com preços absurdos. O Brasil tornou-se um exemplo de "desindustrialização precoce", não por falta de potencial, mas por excesso de protecções mal calibradas.

Não há substituto para a competitividade verdadeira. Nenhuma muralha aduaneira compensa um sistema económico que não aprende a competir. E nenhum líder que prometa o contrário mudará esse facto.

BTW, típico dos políticos actuais, escrevo isto a pensar em PNS e no que diz sobre a retenção na fonte e as devoluções de IRS, o final do artigo é meio cómico:

"On a recent trip to Japan, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva criticized Trump's trade policies, saying, "We need to overcome protectionism and make sure that free trade can grow." But his leftist Workers' Party has championed protectionism for decades, turning back some progress made in the 1990s to open the economy. "It is a little hypocritical," said Lucas Ferraz, former secretary of foreign trade at Brazil's Economy Ministry. "They've adopted the very model that Trump has in mind.""