sexta-feira, junho 30, 2017

"All models are wrong, some are useful"

Há anos que uso esta frase "All models are wrong, some are useful." Ajuda a não ser fundamentalista, a aprender a tolerar os modelos "infantis" que encontro, segundo os meus padrões, mas que são autênticos quando bem intencionados e funcionam:
"All models are wrong, some are useful.
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Remember that all models are wrong; the practical question is how wrong do they have to be to not be useful.
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A model is a simplification which fosters understanding.
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we believe in using models for the purpose of building a massive, but finite amount of fundamental, invariant knowledge about how the world really works. Applying this knowledge is the key to making good decisions and avoiding stupidity.
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“Scientists generally agree that no theory is 100 percent correct. Thus, the real test of knowledge is not truth, but utility. Science gives us power. The more useful that power, the better the science.”
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Too many people are caught up wasting time on physics-like precision in areas of practical life that do not have such precision available. A better approach is to ask “Is it useful?” and, if yes, “To what extent?”
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Mental models are a way of thinking about the world that prepares us to make good decisions in the first place."

Trechos retirados de "All Models Are Wrong"

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