sexta-feira, junho 12, 2015

Sinal ou ruído?

Ontem escrevi sobre os modelos mentais, sobre as caixas em que estamos metidos em "Ask how many boxes you can think inside".
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Depois, encontrei "Innovation Is The Art Of Understanding Noise And Signal":
"as the availability of data has increased exponentially, there is a growing desire to more clearly separate signal from noise, in order to more closely attend to what is relevant, rather than what is incidental.
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The stronger your desire to predict and control, the more likely you are to misinterpret data, the more likely you are to make bad choices about what is noise and what is signal.
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Information then becomes the place you go to hunt for things to support what you have very likely already decided is true or important, rather than what you might discover to be true or important. This being the case, your organization, even when  it seems secure and successful and productive, is likely to be on a quick path to irrelevance, because almost certainly you will miss critical, differentiating opportunities to be innovative. Your focus on the signal, in service to prediction,  means that you will lose sight of the the rich value inherent in the noise.
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How is it that you distinguish noise from signal in organizations? And, perhaps  more important with regard to innovation, how do you decide what is noise and  what is signal? Signal is not an externally verifiable fact; it’s a bias in how we think, usually unconscious and unintentional. Both signal and noise are rich, robust inputs, and there is great risk in excluding one in favor of the other. So, the difference between an innovative way of thinking and a non-innovative way of thinking might be simply the ability to attend to information in an open, curious and creative way, and to avoid seeing information as either this or that, noise or signal."

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