Primeiro, uma descrição da evolução económica espanhola que emula de muito perto a evolução portuguesa. Consumo privado a crescer mais de 2% em 2014 (2,2% em Portugal), as lojas registaram a melhor época de Natal desde o início da crise (em Portugal) e as vendas de carros cresceram 18% (34,8% em Portugal), tudo isto em ambiente deflaccionário desde Agosto de 2014.
"Against that backdrop, the defiance of Spanish consumers has offered relief to both the retail industry and the country’s finance ministry. But it also poses something of a conundrum to many in the economics profession, which habitually warns that a fall in prices is dangerous because it leads to a drop in demand.
The theory is compelling: if consumers expect products to become cheaper over time, it makes sense for them to delay spending and wait for prices to fall further. Once this dynamic gains hold, it is likely to produce a vicious economic circle, and ultimately a sustained depression.
What is happening in Spain however may complicate the debate by leading some to argue that falling prices can in fact coexist with rising demand — even for an extended period of time.
A similar dynamic — falling prices but rising consumption — can also be detected in Ireland and Portugal, adds Mr Amor, while France leans closer to the pernicious Italian example."