Enquanto oiço "Adapt" de Tim Harford, onde encontro coisas como:
"we’ve already seen that bottom-up often beats top-down, and we’ll see even more powerful examples of that tendency later. But this is the point: the world is complicated. What works in the US Army may not work in a rural Javanese village. The lesson is to keep experimenting and adapting, because a single success may or may not replicate in other contexts.)" (Moi ici: Um apostar na humildade e na experimentação)
- "Thinking Big? Then Think Little Bets" ("Everyone wants to make big bets. Be bold. Go big. But the irony is that people routinely bet big on ideas that aren’t solving the right problems.")
- "Intuition Can't Beat Experimentation" ("You can imagine how disappointed he was when, having spent some time with him (and his wine), we told him we had no idea what the “right” price was and that the magic number didn’t exist. He almost took away the wine he’d already poured for us.
In an attempt to save our drinks, we did offer him help. The help was a method – no magic, equations, or superior knowledge – just a simple experimental design. This article provides a brief introduction to a new and exciting field in behavioral economics: experimentation in firms... The main takeaway is that in many market instances, experimenting (rather than guessing) is the most accurate, simple and often the cheapest way to know how to approach a challenge, be it the pricing, presentation or promotion of a product. ... So why don’t businesses experiment more? ... Another barrier is that managers feel they’ve been hired to provide solutions and make tough decisions to enhance the firm’s performance. In other words, they feel they are expected to have ready answers for the challenges the firm faces. Opting for experimentation may appear to imply they don’t and could compromise their level of expertise – as if they have failed to do their job.")