'There will be blood'

Muita gente acredita que esta crise não passa de uma constipação forte e que depois da tempestade voltaremos ao que era normal.
.
E se esta crise não se tratar de um constipação passageira?
.
E se esta crise provocar uma diminuição duradoura da procura?
.
E se esta crise gerar uma espécie de recalibração, o equivalente a um novo nível de um jogo informático, em que a procura não voltará a ser a mesma?
.
Se uma crise é passageira, um empreendedor com visão, que acredita na sua proposta, e que tem capital, pode decidir mergulhar na piscina e esperar debaixo de água sustendo a respiração.
.
Mas e se a crise não é passageira... quanto tempo é que vai aguentar sem respirar debaixo de água?
.
E se o colapso na procura durar 2/3 anos, quem é que aguenta sem fazer re-organizações?
.
Praticamente todos os dias visito PME's que estão a procurar sobreviver a esta crise.
.
A manter-se o colapso na procura, já nem falo no seu agravamento, quantas empresas industriais vão conseguir manter-se à tona?
.
Uma boa empresa, com uma boa ideia, com vantagens competitivas, pode não ter arcaboiço financeiro para aguentar 2/3 anos de prejuízos. Não será preferível fechar ou reduzir a actividade e ter capital para recomeçar daqui a 3 anos?
.
E porquê 3 anos? Se atendermos às palavras de Niall Ferguson... muita água vai passar por debaixo das pontes e não vai voltar a ser o que era.
.
Harvard economic historian Niall Ferguson predicts prolonged financial hardship, even civil war, before the ‘Great Recession' ends ...Read the full article
.
"Policy makers and forecasters who see a recovery next year are probably lying to boost public confidence, he said. (Têm medo de serem apelidados de Cassandra. No entanto, as pessoas não acreditam em histórias sem face negra) And the crisis will eventually provoke political conflict, albeit not on the scale of a world war, but violent all the same (basta recordar a situação italiana ou o que já se diz sobre a saúde financeira dos 'lander' alemães)."
.
"Abu Dhabi buying Nova Chemicals at bargain-basement prices on Monday is a sign of things to come, with financial power quickly being transferred over to the world's creditors – namely sovereign wealth funds – and away from the world's debtors.
.
And much of today's mess is the fault of central bankers who targeted consumer-price inflation but purposefully turned a blind eye to asset inflation."
.
"Will globalization survive this crisis?
Niall Ferguson: It's a question that's well worth asking. Because when you look at the way trade has collapsed in the world in the last quarter of 2008 – countries like Taiwan saw their exports fall 45 per cent – that is a depression-style contraction, and we're in quite early stages of the game at this point. This is before the shock has really played out politically. Before protectionist slogans have really established themselves in the public debate. Buy America is the beginning of something I think we'll see a lot more of. So I think there's a real danger that globalization could unravel.
...
Is a violent resolution to this crisis inevitable?
Niall Ferguson: “There will be blood, in the sense that a crisis of this magnitude is bound to increase political as well as economic [conflict]. It is bound to destabilize some countries. It will cause civil wars to break out, that have been dormant. It will topple governments that were moderate and bring in governments that are extreme. These things are pretty predictable. The question is whether the general destabilization, the return of, if you like, political risk, ultimately leads to something really big in the realm of geopolitics.
...
You speak about the crisis being in its early days, but most policy makers and the International Monetary Fund are predicting a quick end to it. Where do you differ with them?
Niall Ferguson: “I do think they're wrong. I think the IMF has been consistently wrong in its projections year after year. Most projections are wrong, because they're based on models that don't really correspond to the real world. If anything good comes of crisis, I hope it will be to discredit these ridiculous models that people rely on, and a return to something more like a historical understanding about the way the world works.”
...
“It's obvious, surely we know by now, that this is something quite different. It's a crisis of excessive debt, the deleveraging process has barely begun, the U.S. consumers are not going to suddenly bounce back and hit the shopping malls just because they get a tax cut. The savings rate is going to continue to rise (A já famosa derrocada da procura, a incrível recalibração em curso).
...
The world divides in two, the debtors and the creditors. The debtors … (U.S., Europe) ... are going to have to sell of their assets. Call it the global foreclosure. They're going to be selling their assets cheaply to those who have the surpluses. This is not going to be like the Chinese buying Blackstone at the top of the market.
...
“European banks are far more leveraged than American banks. I don't see Europe as offering up any particularly good model in any respect. In fact, I think Europe's prospects could get a whole lot worse this year, to the extent that it could be very, very hard indeed to keep the Euro zone together. I think it will be possible because the costs of leaving will be so high."