quinta-feira, novembro 13, 2008
A não perder
"Abandon all hope once you enter deflation" de Evans-Pritchard no Telegraph.
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"The curse of deflation is that it increases the burden of debts. Incomes fall: debts stay the same. This way lies suffocation"
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""It is going to be absolute murder in Britain if inflation turns negative," said Professor Peter Spencer from York University."
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"Deflation has other insidious traits. It causes shoppers to hold back. They wait for lower prices. Once this psychology gains a grip, it can gradually set off a self-feeding spiral that is hard to stop. .
It also redistributes wealth – the wrong way. Savings appreciate, which is nice for the "rentiers" with capital. The effect is a large transfer of income from working people with mortgages to bondholders. (These may be pension funds, of course)."
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O que será pior deflação ou hiper-inflação? E o que é que vamos ter?
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"The curse of deflation is that it increases the burden of debts. Incomes fall: debts stay the same. This way lies suffocation"
.
""It is going to be absolute murder in Britain if inflation turns negative," said Professor Peter Spencer from York University."
.
"Deflation has other insidious traits. It causes shoppers to hold back. They wait for lower prices. Once this psychology gains a grip, it can gradually set off a self-feeding spiral that is hard to stop. .
It also redistributes wealth – the wrong way. Savings appreciate, which is nice for the "rentiers" with capital. The effect is a large transfer of income from working people with mortgages to bondholders. (These may be pension funds, of course)."
.
O que será pior deflação ou hiper-inflação? E o que é que vamos ter?
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1 comentário:
Depois de um periodo de 6 meses a 1 ano de deflacção nas mercadorias, imobiliário e acções iremos ter estagflacção. Isto é inflacção generalizada na ordem dos 10% a 20%, mas sem aumentar os preços dos activos acima referidos. Nessa altura vai-se subir novamenta a taxa de juro para 10% e depois dessa crise teremos finalmente recuperação.
É a minha aposta.
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