"As odd as it may sound, managers make decisions every day that are not based on objective evidence. Instead, they depend heavily on assumptions drawn from the company's collective history or from the industry as a whole. Such conventional wisdom is any idea, notion or rule of thumb that managers apply reflexively and without question. People settle into a particular view of the way their world works; conventional wisdom provides managers with day-to-day guidance.
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When the level of uncertainty spikes - as it would, say, if a manager heard news about an intensifying competitive threat at a key account - it can cause a person to rely more heavily on past experience than on the actual facts. Most people, then, opt for a preprogrammed response fueled by anecdotal evidence. Conventional wisdom can often triumph over objectivity whenever anecdotal evidence seems overwhelmingly convincing.
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(Managers) generalize from single observations, even if the data from thousands of other observations tells them they shouldn't.
We call this the curse of anecdotal evidence.
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managers' decision making derives from a small, selective store of information they continue to accumulate in the same way from the same sources until it lets them down. It becomes their information habit and can prevent them from seeing the obvious, because no one checks or validates old assumptions anymore.
Left unchecked, the resulting conventional wisdom can work as an insidious poison."
Trechos retirados de "Manage for profit, not for market share" de Hermann Simon, Frank Bilstein e Frank Luby.
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