sábado, março 26, 2016

"faz parte do caminho para Mongo"

Acredito que o relatado em "Too much of a good thing" faz parte do caminho para Mongo.
Os lucros estão muito altos porquê?
"Profits have risen in most rich countries over the past ten years but the increase has been biggest for American firms. Coupled with an increasing concentration of ownership, this means the fruits of economic growth are being hoarded.
An intense burst of consolidation will boost their profits more. Since 2008 American firms have engaged in one of the largest rounds of mergers in their country’s history, worth $10 trillion. Unlike earlier acquisitions aimed at building global empires, these mergers were largely aimed at consolidating in America, allowing the merged companies to increase their market shares and cut their costs."
Onde é que isto nos leva:
"Large firms no longer employ all that many people in America: the domestic employee base of the S&P 500 is only around a tenth of total American employment." 
Para mim o ponto crítico não é a legislação antitrust mas a liberdade de concorrência, as barreiras à entrada:
"Concentration does not of itself indicate collusion. Other factors at play might include regulations that keep competitors out. Business spending on lobbying doubled over the period as incumbents sought to shape regulations in ways that suited them. The rising importance of intangible assets, particularly patents, has meant that an ability to manage industry regulators and the challenges of litigation is more valuable than ever.
The ability of big firms to influence and navigate an ever-expanding rule book may explain why the rate of small-company creation in America is close to its lowest mark since the 1970s (although an index of startups run by the Kauffman Foundation has shown flickers of life recently). Small firms normally lack both the working capital needed to deal with red tape and long court cases, and the lobbying power that would bend rules to their purposes."
Na minha visão do futuro económico a caminho de Mongo, as empresas grandes, baseadas na eficiência, com um ADN colado aos custos, consolidarão umas atrás das outras (como na cerveja SABMiller e InBev) para tentar satisfazer os seus accionistas. O essencial é garantir, como na cerveja, que empresas novas possam surgir e trabalhar para nichos que depois crescerão, ou não.

Uma série de tweets de Esko Kilpi que favoritei esta semana
"Mass solutions are not as competitive as contextual solutions

1/ We are re-conceptualizing the 18th century markets following Adam Smith
2/ It makes sense to be small, not big
3/ It makes sense to work through platforms, not the industrial-era companies
The changing rules 1/ the engine of the industrial economy was supply-side economies of scale. higher sales volumes and lower average costs
Too many people in too many companies are too many “handshakes” away from things that matter. There is not enough exposure to key insights"

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