terça-feira, junho 29, 2010

O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte VI)

Em linha com o segundo gráfico deste postal "O choque chinês num país de moeda forte (parte II)" (o título é sintomático e premonitório), em linha com este postal sobre o emprego e a produtividade (especial atenção ao quadrante C):
Este interessante artigo "Downsizing in German Chemical Manufacturing Industry during the 1990s. Why Small is Beautiful?" lança mais algumas pistas de reflexão sobre o jogo do gato e do rato e sobre como o choque chinês é enfrentável num país de moeda forte.
.
"The 1990s have brought about severe competitive challenges and new rules of playing game in chemical industry. Freeman (1999) claims that the last decade was accompanied by great changes, with the massive restructuring as the key feature:
The days of the integrated chemical company were coming to an end, with companies abandoning noncore business segments in efforts to boost the creation of shareholder value. The reshaping of the industry had begun in the 1980s, but it was on a small scale compared to that in the 1990s.
...
The German chemical industry have been doing tremendous job (Landau and Arora, 1999) and continues to do so in development of the global and national economies in terms of employment, investments and value added as reported by the President of the Verband der Chemischen Industrie e.V. (Association of the German Chemical Industry). In past several years, the industry has been downsizing, “right sizing,” and producing new companies through small mergers, megamergers, and spin-offs. The new business reality gives every reason to believe there will be further consolidation and subsequent downsizing in the chemical industry (Millenium Special Report, 1999). This is also confirmed by the data for German chemical industry for 1992–2004 period, which tells us that the average size, defined as the number of employees of the firm, has decreased by about 47% (from 813 to 433).
.
This seems counterintuitive to the general trend of merges and acquisitions (Weston et al., 1999), and to the literature, which documents that relatively larger firms have better propensity
to survive, and that economical/technological situation has put considerable pressure on smaller firms (Swift, 1999). Then the natural question arises: “Why small is beautiful?
.
The globalization has taken great pace during the 1990s and the “whales” of the traditional German manufacturing industries had to respond to changing environment in which production process could be transferred to nearby low-cost geographical locations. Audretsch and Elston (2006) claim that the dominant (largest) firms have reacted by substituting of technology and capital by labor as well as by locating the new plants outside Germany. In the chemical sector during 1991–1995 the domestic employment decreased by 80 thousands, while 14 thousands jobs were created by chemical firms outside Germany;
...
"Baily et al. (1996) check the conventional faith that the rise in productivity and dowsizing are linked through some microeconomic mechanism.
Authors find, though, that both dowsizers and upsizers increase in productivity and the relationship is quite complex and not clearcut. In their other paper, Baily et al. (2001) try to resolve the debate on cyclical nature of the labor productivity over time. They claim that the productivity of long-term downsizers tends to be quite considerable, much larger than that of long-run upsizers." (Moi ici: A melhoria disruptiva é mais rentável que a melhoria incremental)
...
These findings suggest that for German chemical manufacturing firms improving technical efficiency has not been the first priority during the 1990s. Instead, they have been paying special attention to establishment of an optimal scale, while technical efficiency has been supported on a certain level.
...
Bathelt (2000) identifies three types of German chemical firms: (i) semiflexible integrated firms, mainly medium-large and large sized, with main features being high degree of vertical and/or horizontal integration and limited product and process flexibility; (ii) conventionally specialized firms, mostly small and medium sized, which are characterized by a low degree of product and process flexibility; and (iii) flexible specialized firms, which are mostly small and can only be found in the narrow chemical subindustry (pigments, dyes, paints, and varnishes). Except for the third type of firms, which tries to achieve economies of scope to adjust to market-segmentation tendencies, the first two care about economies of scale by various production activities and by producing relatively long-term homogeneous goods."

Sem comentários: