Para lá da razão

“We need to blend systematic analysis and intuition. Neither gives us a direct path to the truth. Each has its own limitations.
Analytical and statistical methods can pick up subtle trends in the data that our intuitions would miss. They can show us when the regularities we think we see are really just chance connections. They can help up appraise the size of different effects so we can take the effects into account more accurately. On the other hand, analytical methods often miss the context of a situation, and they can result in misleading recommendations.
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Intuitive judgments reflect the experiences we’ve had and can help us respond quickly to situations. They are sensitive to context and nuance, letting us read situations and also read other people. We can make successful decisions without using analytical methods, but we cannot make good decisions without drawing on our intuitions. Yet our intuitions aren’t foolproof, and we always have to worry that they are going to mislead us.
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Research showing that a statistical formula can outperform an expert doesn’t mean that the expert is flawed. It just means that the statistics do better in certain types of circumstances. Analytical methods can sometimes outperform experts, particularly if these methods improve on the judgments made by experts, but the methods may not be as valuable as their developers argue.”
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Trecho de Gary Klein retirado de “Streetlights and Shadows - Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making”
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Admitamos que o mundo lá fora existe!
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Os humanos usam os seus sentidos para operarem no mundo. Os humanos usam a razão para operarem no mundo. Contudo a razão, por mais preciosa que seja, e é, não passa de uma ferramenta tosca incapaz de perceber o mundo na sua complexidade.
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Assim, quem confia apenas na razão… vai entrar em contradição, mais tarde ou mais cedo, por que confia numa ferramenta incompleta, vai cair numa teia e perder o pé.