Talvez a luz ao fundo do túnel seja afinal...

... outro comboio que se aproxima.
.
Será que vem mesmo aí outra rodada de bordoada financeira?
.
No António Maria "A segunda vaga da crise hipotecária".
.
Via José Silva do Norteamos "Global systemic crisis – New tipping-point in March 2009: 'When the world becomes aware that this crisis is worse than the 1930s crisis' "
.
Um cheirinho (fétido de sulfureto de hifrogénio, dado o conteúdo):
.
"A whole range of psychological factors will contribute to this tipping point: general awareness in Europe, America and Asia that the crisis has escaped from the control of every public authority, whether national or international; that it is severely affecting all regions of the world, even if some are more affected than others (see GEAB N°28); that it is directly hitting hundreds of millions of people in the “developed” world; and that it is only worsening as its consequences reveal throughout the real economy. National governments and international institutions only have three months left to prepare themselves to the next blow, one that could go along severe risks of social chaos. The countries which are not properly equipped to cope with a surge in unemployment and major risks on pensions will be seriously destabilized by this new public awareness. "
.
"we anticipate that the minimum duration of the decanting phase of the crisis is 3 years (1). It shall be finished neither in spring 2009, nor in summer 2009, nor at the beginning of 2010. It is only towards the end of 2010 that the situation will start stabilizing again and improving a little in some regions of the world, i.e. Asia and the Eurozone, as well as in countries producing energy, mineral and food commodities (2). Elsewhere, it will continue; in particular in the US and UK, and in all the countries depending on their economy, were the duration could approximate a decade. In fact these countries should not expect any real return to growth before 2018. Moreover no one should imagine that the improvement at the end of 2010 will correspond to a return of high growth. The recovery will take long."
.
"Finally, among the various consequences of the crisis for dozens of millions of people in the US, Canada, UK, Japan, Netherlands and Denmark in particular (3), there is the fact that, from the end of the year 2008 onward, news about major losses on the part of the organizations in charge of managing the financial assets supposed to finance pensions will multiply. "
.
Um comentário a um postal de Roubini ilustra bem a minha maior preocupação actual. Gosto de pensar em sistemas, em cadeias de relações de causa-efeito, em jogos de equilibrio e desiquilibrio entre vectores concorrentes ou divergentes, gosto de modelar o comportamento dos sistemas e tenho horror ao tratamento dos acontecimentos como eventos isolados. Por isso, não posso estar mais de acordo com este comentário e recear as consequências do que ele significa:
.
"“The government is looking at this from a purely macroeconomic level. They have to consider the microeconomics and buil a model up from that to macro to find a way to hopefully fix this. This would hopefully help the common man survive this turmoil with something left to show for years of hard work.” "
.
Adenda: a primeira vez que usei aquele marcador "desde que ouvi o ministro pinho dizer que a crise financeira não afectará a economia" neste blogue foi a 15 de Setembro de 2007... mais uma vez "Não há acasos, todas as coincidências são significativas)