... mas eu sou um conservador financeiro, neto de lavradores, e respeitador dos saberes dos Antigos:
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"For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough."
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Roubini em "8 really, really scary predictions"
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Por que:
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"Things are going to be awful for everyday people. U.S. GDP growth is going to be negative through the end of 2009. And the recovery in 2010 and 2011, if there is one, is going to be so weak - with a growth rate of 1% to 1.5% - that it's going to feel like a recession. I see the unemployment rate peaking at around 9% by 2010. The value of homes has already fallen 25%. In my view, home prices are going to fall by another 15% before bottoming out in 2010."
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Por cá não será um oásis I can assure you!!!
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Freight Haulers Prepare for "Nuclear Winter"
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In a normal year, Gordon Trucking Inc. might replace 20% of its fleet of 1,500 big rigs with new trucks. But given the bleak outlook for the freight business, the Pacific, Wash., hauler doesn't intend to buy a single new truck next year.
"We're settling in for nuclear winter in the first half of 2009," says Steve Gordon, operating chief for the company ...
A common theme these days - reduced capital spending - and in this case a reduction from 300 trucks annually to zero for this trucking company.
In most industries it is the capital equipment companies that really get hit in a business downturn. For freight, it is manufacturers of tractor trailers, rail cars and ships.
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http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/12/freight-haulers-prepare-for-nuclear.html
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