quinta-feira, outubro 30, 2014

"statistical calculation is not enough"

"Don’t Confuse Risk and Uncertainty
Given the many unknowns, few situations in life allow us to calculate risk precisely. In most cases the risks involved are a mixture of more or less well known ones.
...
In health care, another world with a high degree of uncertainty, a doctor needs statistical thinking to understand the results of medical research, but also good intuitions to understand the patient. Similarly, in the world of business, statistical calculation is not enough; to know whom to trust, one needs good intuitions about other people."
 Trechos retirados de "Risk Savy" de Gerd Gigerenzer.

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