"if the announcement of a recession causes any additional impact on macroeconomic aggregates compared to what you might expect from the GDP data itself. In other words, does the announcement of a recession reduce consumption or investment in OECD countries, conditional on actual economic fundamentals? For ease I’ll call this an announcement effect.Hoje na rádio citavam um estudo que correlacionava a incidência das depressões e o despoletar da crise.
For investment they get the answer that economists would hope for - there is no announcement effect. Firms are well informed, and just look at the numbers. However for consumption they do find a significant announcement effect, both in terms of the actual data (and the size of the impact can be non-trivial) and in terms of consumer confidence indicators. One final result they emphasise, which makes clear sense from a macro point of view, is that the impact of recession announcements on consumer spending in smaller in countries with more robust social safety nets."
Recordar a Constança "cortisol" e Sá e "Não é impunemente que se diz mal (parte II)"
Trechos retirados de "When the definition of a recession matters"