quinta-feira, abril 10, 2014

Cortisol, cortisol, cortisol

"if the announcement of a recession causes any additional impact on macroeconomic aggregates compared to what you might expect from the GDP data itself. In other words, does the announcement of a recession reduce consumption or investment in OECD countries, conditional on actual economic fundamentals? For ease I’ll call this an announcement effect.
For investment they get the answer that economists would hope for - there is no announcement effect. Firms are well informed, and just look at the numbers. However for consumption they do find a significant announcement effect, both in terms of the actual data (and the size of the impact can be non-trivial) and in terms of consumer confidence indicators. One final result they emphasise, which makes clear sense from a macro point of view, is that the impact of recession announcements on consumer spending in smaller in countries with more robust social safety nets."
Hoje na rádio citavam um estudo que correlacionava a incidência das depressões e o despoletar da crise.
Recordar a Constança "cortisol" e Sá e "Não é impunemente que se diz mal (parte II)"
Trechos retirados de "When the definition of a recession matters"

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