Estabilidade bem gerida não é estagnação

Um artigo interessante publicado pela Harvard Business Review, "Growth Isn't the Only Way for Companies to Create Value":

"It’s a basic goal of most companies: to grow revenue each year. But as globalization recedes, populations in many nations grow older (and buy less), and sustainability concerns lead more people to scrutinize the necessity of every purchase, companies are facing headwinds to growth. And while growth can be a particularly powerful differentiator in such a challenging context, it is also particularly risky. Pushing for growth at all costs can end up destroying value rather than creating it, through wasteful investments and diverting resources from the core strengths of the firm.

The question thus arises: How can companies build lasting value without growth?"

Um estudo de 20 anos sobre mais de 10.000 empresas da América do Norte, Europa e Japão identificou 172 empresas estáveis - com crescimento de receitas quase nulo, mas consistente. Estas empresas apresentaram retornos para os accionistas semelhantes à média do mercado, mas com menos 12% de volatilidade, maior longevidade (em média, quase 100 anos) e metade da probabilidade de perder 90% do seu valor.

Entre estas, 57 superaram mesmo o mercado. Embora sem um perfil único, partilham traços comuns: um em cada quatro tinha um dono com posição de controlo, sugerindo que o compromisso de longo prazo e a disciplina estratégica contam. Evitaram riscos típicos de crescimentos agressivos, como grandes aquisições — cuja taxa de fracasso ronda os 70-75%.

Recordo um charuto ... em "A lição dos nabateus", o texto é do autor de "Strategy and the Fat Smoker", David Meister se a memória não me atraiçoa.

"Many businesses facing low growth prospects react by seeking to acquire new customers—often at high cost—but stable outperformers are more likely to maximize value from existing customer relationships. They do this by shifting from physical products with declining demand to asset-light services and software. This approach not only deepens customer ties but also improves margins and lowers asset intensity.

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This path is most common in asset-heavy industries undergoing digital transformations or in IT companies becoming more service-oriented. More broadly, it may offer an interesting path for businesses facing commoditization or pressure from competitors.

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Mature businesses are often tempted to rely on a strong brand image while cutting costs. However, enhancing quality can be a more sustainable path to value creation, enabling firms to establish a difficult-to-erode position and improve their gross margins.

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While we observed this strategy most commonly among consumer businesses, it may be relevant to many companies operating within a niche—whether due to product uniqueness or specialized expertise. By becoming irreplaceable, these businesses can strengthen their pricing power and move upmarket, whether they produce luxury goods or industrial components.

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When revenue growth is out of reach, balance sheet expansion offers another alternative to create value. Stable outperformers often grow their asset base through vertical integration to control a larger share of the profit pool and increase their value added. This approach also helps them build a unique asset portfolio that strengthens their differentiated value propositions and competitive moats.

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This strategy is most prevalent in asset-intensive sectors such as industrials, utilities, and materials—but any business with an already-differentiated product and significant market share facing cost pressures from suppliers may find vertical integration a compelling path to value creation.

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The strategies and success of stable outperformers show that growth is not the only path to value creation.

However, company leaders should bear in mind that, while the stable companies we identified could sustain outperformance over decades, their levers may be exhausted at some point: Margins cannot be increased beyond 100% and dividend volatility cannot fall below zero. Pursuing a strategy of stability does not absolve leaders from having to continue to explore and revisit growth opportunities as conditions evolve."

Quando o crescimento das vendas é limitado, não é necessário entrar numa corrida cara por novos clientes. Mais valor pode ser criado a partir das relações existentes, através de serviços, software ou melhorias da qualidade, pode ser um caminho mais sustentável e rentável.

Além disso, investir em diferenciação real — seja por integração vertical, especialização ou excelência operacional — ajuda a reforçar as margens e a evitar a erosão competitiva. Para as PME, isto traduz-se em resistir à tentação de cortar custos cegamente e, em vez disso, apostar em serem insubstituíveis no seu nicho.

Em suma: estabilidade bem gerida não é estagnação — é uma estratégia activa, disciplinada e orientada para o longo prazo.