terça-feira, agosto 13, 2019

"Loucos por Carros"

Sei que resolvi fazer uma pausa nas publicações mas ...

Racionalmente nunca procuro assistir a um programa destes, carros não são algo que me atraia por aí além.

Às vezes a fazer zapping passo pelo canal Blaze e deixo-me ficar a assistir a episódios de "Loucos por Carros" ... aquilo é ver Mongo a funcionar.

Paixão, conhecimento, hibridação, personalização, tudo ao vivo e a cores.


"scalable efficiency is becoming less and less efficient"

Trechos em linha com o que escrevemos aqui há muitos anos. Mongo rules!
"Over the past century, [Moi ici: Recordar "Tão século XX" e "O fim do modelo económico do século XX"] the scalable efficiency model has driven the growth and success of large institutions around the world – corporations, governments, universities, NGO’s, etc. In this model, the primary focus is how to perform complex tasks very efficiently and reliably at scale. The way to achieve this has been to tightly specify and highly standardize all tasks. In a more stable world, this produced significant efficiency.
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But here’s the challenge. Our world is no longer stable. It’s evolving at an accelerating rate with growing uncertainty. Customers are also being more powerful and less and less willing to settle for standardized, mass market products and services. The combination of these two forces creates a paradox: scalable efficiency is becoming less and less efficient."
Trechos retirados de "Learning and Strategy"

Vamos fazer uma breve paragem na publicação de postais durante os próximos dias para poder concentrar a atenção em alguns projectos.

segunda-feira, agosto 12, 2019

Uma bofetada que recebo como um aviso

"nature evolves away from constraints, not toward goals"
Como escrevi ontem "exploitation através de local searches quando a paisagem competitiva está em mudança". A que grupo pertencerão, ao segundo ou ao terceiro?
"Três grupos:
  • os que agem ao primeiro sinal e partem em exploration de novas alternativas;
  • os que por cegueira ou incapacidade continuam a sua vida de exploitation através de local searches; e
  • os que assumem a exploitation até ao fim, conscientes de que mesmo assim, terão de fazer a sua mudança, porque os dois primeiros grupos vão libertar quota de mercado, voluntária ou involuntariamente."
Julgo que ao segundo, porque os que se enquadram no terceiro grupo mudam algo no modelo de negócio.

Há meses escrevi sobre o que acontece quando deixa de haver trabalhadores, foi na série, "Para aumentar salários ... (parte IV)". Quando a falta de trabalhadores obriga os salários a subirem mais do que a produtividade, as empresas começam a trilhar um caminho perigoso. A minha visão optimista apontou logo a alternativa, subir na escala de valor para que a produtividade aumente mais depressa do que os salários. Ainda recentemente escrevi "Mudar e anichar" e em Janeiro último "Espero que não vos tremam as pernas quando as empresas começarem a cair como tordos".

A Natureza não pensa, não corre para objectivos, a Natureza foge de restrições e constrangimentos. Qual a alternativa a pensar e subir na escala de valor (o primeiro grupo lá de cima). Manter tudo igual e procurar suprir a restrição mais forte.

Assim, este título, "Empresas têxteis portuguesas recrutam trabalhadores na Ásia", é uma bofetada que recebo como um aviso para aprender a ler melhor o comportamento humano (como os templários no final do processo de iniciação). É mais fácil fazer o que é mais fácil.

Voltamos à equação da produtividade:
Eu, por feitio profissional, opto sempre por trabalhar o numerador, o único que pode promover melhor nível de vida para todos. Por isso, esqueço-me que há sempre gente em busca de viver à custa de melhorias no denominador. Claro que isto será sempre um paliativo, trabalhadores mais dóceis, mais ignorantes e àvidos de horas extra só permitem controlar os custos até um certo ponto. Até porque a capital de Marrocos fica mais perto de Lisboa do que Madrid.





Isso depende...

"Our learnings support a single point, which Paul and I named in Mike’s honor. Mazzeo’s Law: The answer to every strategic question is “It depends.” Corollary: The trick is knowing what it depends on.
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What we found is that there’s no best path to business success. Managers successfully address seemingly similar problems in very different ways and, as our corollary suggests, the trick is to find which solution fits with the specifics of your business.
...
The key to making good business decisions is to assess how the potential benefits and potential costs of a particularly strategy, in this case an incentive plan, pertains in your specific situation."

Trechos retirados de "The Answer to Every Business Question Is “It Depends”"

domingo, agosto 11, 2019

exploitation através de local searches quando a paisagem competitiva está em mudança


Em Fevereiro último escrevi ""profecia fácil do "hollowing", ou "radioclubização", de como uma marca forte e genuína se transforma numa carcaça, num aristocrata arruinado, fruto de deixarem os muggles à solta"".

O que fez a Kraft Heinz no início do ano? Escolheu um novo CEO com um passado na indústria cervejeira moldado no sucesso através do volume e eficiência. Agora apanho "Kraft Heinz shares slump on new writedowns and falling sales":
"Kraft Heinz, the Warren Buffett-backed food company, has disclosed another $1.2 billion (€1.07 billion) of write-downs, on top of the $15 billion charge it took earlier this year to reflect how shoppers have been shunning its brands.
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Its shares fell 13 per cent on Thursday morning, taking the decline for the year to 38 per cent." 
Empresa a precisar de um corte epistemológico, a precisar de ir em busca de uma nova estratégia corporativa, opta por continuar a sua busca por óptimos locais na paisagem competitiva enrugada, quando os picos do passado estão a afundar-se por alteração da percepção dos clientes.

Recordar:
Relacionar com este texto de Seth Godin "The old media/new media chasm":
"New media tends to be adopted by amateurs first. And it rarely has a mass audience in the early days (because it’s new). But professional content for the masses is precisely what old media stands for. As new media gains traction, the old media doubles down on what they believe to be their value, because they no longer have a monopoly on attention.
...
So the Times publishes a snarky, poorly written takedown of podcasts. Not because it’s based on the economic or cultural reality of today, but because their self-esteem requires there to be a chasm between all of these amateur podcasts and the few professional ones that they deign to create and publish.
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Businesses make their own choices and suffer the consequences."

E volto a há dias atrás:
"Três grupos:
  • os que agem ao primeiro sinal e partem em exploration de novas alternativas;
  • os que por cegueira ou incapacidade continuam a sua vida de exploitation através de local searches; e
  • os que assumem a exploitation até ao fim, conscientes de que mesmo assim, terão de fazer a sua mudança, porque os dois primeiros grupos vão libertar quota de mercado, voluntária ou involuntariamente."

Acerca do valor

Excelente artigo sobre princípios associados ao conceito de valor, "What Does It Means to Create Value Now":
"First Principles.
Value is in the eyes of the beholder—or the recipient, for our purposes here. You have the right to develop a theory as to what should be valuable for another person, but they possess the right to determine their worth. Because perceptions about value vary, you may have to explain why your dream client should perceive the value in the way you view it.
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The person receiving the value needs to be better off in some way having received it. If the person is no better off having received the attempted value creation, it is not value.
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Value exists on a continuum. Some things are more valuable than others. My view of this continuum of value in sales is 1: Product Value, 2: Experience Value, 3: Tangible results, and 4: Strategic Value.
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Value has a contextual component, meaning something that might have been valuable in the past may not be helpful in the future. Something that would be valuable in one circumstance might be less useful when the conditions are different.
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Value creation tends to degrade over time; it has a half-life. The value you created in the past is not likely to be as valuable to your clients as the value you create now.
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Value creation may also build on prior value. It is possible to create an upward spiral of higher value over time. [Moi ici: A base para a subida na escala de valor, a base para os macacos que não voam, mas trepam às árvores]
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The greater the value you create, the more relevant you will be to your clients and your dream clients. An inability to create value will make you irrelevant. [Moi ici: O paradoxo do foco num nicho]
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Value creation is found in your understanding. It is as much in your learning as it is your teaching. While it is important you help your clients discover something about themselves, it’s equally (or more) important that you allow them to educate you if you want to create a preference."
Uma ressalva: as empresas não criam valor, as empresas criam ou co-criam valor potencial. Só quando o cliente experiencia valor na sua vida é que ele se materializa.

Relacionar com "Richard von Strigl on Subjective Value":
"The economic value of a good can only be understood as a "subjective value", that is to say, it is always related to and depends upon the effective ends of a determinate economic agent (even though the agent may, of course, take into account the interests of several individuals when setting his ends, as is, for example, the case of a family father)."

sábado, agosto 10, 2019

Exportações YTD (Junho de 2019)

Os resultados das exportações em Junho de 2019 pintam um quadro mais alegre que o de Junho de 2018, mas já ilustram uma deterioração face a Maio de 2019.

Olhando para os dados que acompanho há anos:
Na imagem acima comparo meses homólogos. 
No quadro seguinte comparo valores acumulados:
O Parcial I a fazer alguma recuperação, apesar do vermelho geral, à custa das aeronaves e da óptica. E da próxima vez que vos perguntarem por exemplos de falta de liberalização no sector exportador lembrem-se do farmacêutico a crescer 9% nas exportações, a aproveitar e bem quem paga mais caro e com melhores prazos.
O sector agrícola com uma evolução muito boa:

Calçado com uma quebra de 8%.
Não costumo acompanhar, mas o sector da marroquinaria está com uma evolução notável. Cresceu quase 10% em Janeiro e depois, mais de 25% nos restantes meses do semestre.


Pela primeira vez desde há muito tempo o têxtil com evolução negativa, "Exportações de têxteis afundam 12,7% em junho".

Apesar das importações têxteis terem crescido. Por exemplo as exportações de vestuário de malha cairam 33 milhões de euros no semestre, mas as importações aumentaram 46 milhões de euros. E muitas das importações são material em curso de fabrico para ser exportado depois. Há aqui algo a merecer investigação.

Claro que tudo isto com base nos números do INE, mas há coisas que nos deixam a pensar. Por exemplo, segundo os números do INE as exportações para a China foram de cerca de 300 milhões no semestre e caíram 4% face a 2018. Já com base nos números dos serviços de alfândega chineses as exportações portuguesas no meso período chegaram aos 998 milhões de euros e cresceram 4%. (fonte)

sexta-feira, agosto 09, 2019

"Re‐shaping demand landscapes" (Parte III)

Parte I e Parte II.
"The decision of where on the landscape firms should position their products is at the core of product positioning. By deciding what attributes to include in the product and what uses of the product to promote, firms guide the customers’ understanding of the new product’s comparison set, i.e., the appropriate demand landscape for the product. Firms’ emphasis on a subset of product attributes helps the customers determine the product’s location on the relevant demand landscape and the customers’ WTP for the product.
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Competitor products can serve as referents for the introduction of new products and repositioning of existing products. Depending on the competitors’ positioning in relation to the customers’ ideal points, firms may pursue either differentiation or imitation strategies.
...
Four conditions are useful for thinking about how firms decide when to move on the demand landscape and when to reshape the landscape: weak connection between product attributes and performance, large number of attributes used by the customer to evaluate products, opportunity for collective action, and fragmentation of buyers and suppliers. Both firms that are constrained in their product-attribute choices and firms that have exhausted their repertoires of product modification options can pursue profits by attempting to change the shape of their demand landscapes.
...
Firms that are limited in their product modification options, e.g., generic drug manufacturers, may be especially likely to turn to landscape-shaping strategies in order to promote their products."

Trecho retirado de  "Re‐shaping demand landscapes: How firms change customer preferences to better fit their products". 

Speed to market

Um conjunto de frases retiradas do podcast "Inside H&M’s $4B Inventory Challenge | Inside Fashion" que o amigo Pedro Alves me enviou.

"Focus should be speed to market

Speed has to be the primary asset and capability. Speed is a way to reduce cost and reduce risk.

Cost of lost sales

Cost of high markdowns

Cost of high inventory

Speed is more than being trendy

Speed is primary

A very digital world but it is an analog supply chain depending on lowest cost countries and long lead times supplied by sea

The high cost of low cost: there is a cost to being slow and being in 12 month design cycles and 6/9 months delivery cycles."

E regressamos a 2006 e a um texto sobre isto "O regresso dos clientes" que cita um artigo de 2004. Ou seja, alguém em 2004 publicou um artigo sobre os perigos do modelo eficientista, e em 2019 ainda  vemos tantas empresas mergulhadas nesse modelo. Algumas com sucesso e muitas a perder dinheiro e valor das marcas. Isto faz-me recordar um trecho retirado de um livro que não consigo identificar, julgo que de Adrian Slywotzky, e tenho 8 ou 9 livros dele, sobre o negócio dos televisores a preto e branco. Quando apareceu a TV a cores os televisores a preto e branco ficaram condenados à morte. Uns concorrentes sairam logo desse mercado, outros foram empurrados e mortos sem alternativa, até que ficaram aqueles que assumiram esse mercado até ao fim e ganharam dinheiro a explorar os nichos em que uma televisão a cores é suficiente porque o que conta é o preço, como o das televisões para segurança.

Três grupos:

  • os que agem ao primeiro sinal e partem em exploration de novas alternativas;
  • os que por cegueira ou incapacidade continuam a sua vida de exploitation através de local searches; e
  • os que assumem a exploitation até ao fim, conscientes de que mesmo assim, terão de fazer a sua mudança, porque os dois primeiros grupos vão libertar quota de mercado, voluntária ou involuntariamente.
Voltando ao podcast: em que grupo se enquadra a H&M?
É que não basta decidir mudar...
"First, strategy exists in managers’ minds—in their theories about the world and their company’s place in it. Second, strategy is embodied, reified in a firm’s activities, and routines. Understanding the origins of strategy therefore requires a grasp of how its two aspects— the mental and the physical—jointly come into being. That is, it requires the characterization of a two-part search process. One part occurs in the world of cognition and comprises the mental processes that mold particular theories about the firm and its environment. The other unfolds in the world of action and consists of mechanisms that shape what a company actually does."
Além da decisão é preciso re-orientar toda uma organização habituada e moldada a uma certa forma de trabalhar. Basta comprar o que está por trás da Zara e o que está por trás da H&M antes de chegar à prateleira.


Trecho retirado de "On the Origin of Strategy: Action and Cognition over Time" de Giovanni Gavetti, e Jan W. Rivkin, publicado em Organization Science Vol. 18, No. 3, May–June 2007, pp. 420–439.

quinta-feira, agosto 08, 2019

"Re‐shaping demand landscapes" (Parte II)

Parte I.
"A long-standing tradition in strategy conceptualizes the firm's operating environment as a fitness landscape. In this conceptualization, the firm’s performance is an outcome of searching the landscape for an optimal position. ... More recent contributions to this literature put forward the possibility of firms not just searching a landscape shaped by other actors, but also reshaping the landscape, i.e., changing the topology of the landscape to improve a focal firm’s position on the landscape and, with it, the firm’s performance. This suggestion expands the repertoire of strategies available to firms.
...
To date the research on demand landscapes has taken the shape of the landscape as a given, implicitly assuming that firms operate on exogenously determined landscapes (i.e., firms’ only option is to change products to accommodate customer preferences). Taking a different perspective, I propose that firms can reshape the demand landscapes for their products (i.e., change customer preferences to accommodate their products).
...
I consider two approaches to landscape reshaping by firms—1) moving the customer’s ideal point and 2) manipulating the customer’s perception of the distance between the customer’s ideal point and the firm’s product.
...
My starting point is the demand landscape —a concept that describes the distribution of customer preferences in terms of customers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for different combinations of product attributes. ... In my conceptualization, the demand landscape represents a mapping from product attribute combinations (product positions) to customers’ WTP for these combinations."
Trecho retirado de  "Re‐shaping demand landscapes: How firms change customer preferences to better fit their products".

"Turn disappointment into delight"

Primeiro a leitura desta carta "An open letter to Aer Lingus on the occasion of their quite dreadful service." de onde retiro, a título de exemplo:
"I was unfortunate enough to be on your delayed flight EI937 from Heathrow to Belfast City on 19/7/19, so am writing to complain about the delay itself, the way you made the delay worse, and the way you treated your passengers.
...
Your flight was scheduled to leave at 19:20. When the boards in the airport showed that it was delayed till (if I recall correctly) 22:40, I went to find some Aer Lingus staff to ask for vouchers for food and drink. Since you are obliged to provide your passengers with food and drink during this delay, of course I should not have to go searching for them: you should be making an announcement over the PA and seeking out your passengers to provide them with what you are legally obliged to. But no.
...
I should not but apparently do need to explain to you that the purpose of providing food and drink to your passengers is to make a bad experience — a severely delayed flight — somewhat less bad. Forcing your passengers to stand in a queue for hours in order to earn the privilege of asking for vouchers makes the bad experience worse. That is the opposite of compensation."
Recordo um texto re-lido esta semana, "Why Is Customer Service So Bad? Because It’s Profitable." e recomendo a leitura deste outro artigo lido esta semana "The Magic That Makes Customer Experiences Stick":
"2. Turn disappointment into delight. If your company is going to value the outliers, it must be ready to transform negative experiences into positives,
...
By resolving a problem that he didn’t cause, the night manager delivered an experience that was remembered for years. When employees are taught to be in tune with the customer’s emotions, they can notice changes in emotional state and respond quickly. As their alacrity accelerates the shift from disappointment to delight, the intervention creates a sudden contrast that makes experiences sticky.
...
By turning disappointment into delight, companies can create emotionally memorable experiences and win customers who will sing their praises."

quarta-feira, agosto 07, 2019

"Re‐shaping demand landscapes" (Parte I)

Usar uma paisagem enrugada para explicar comportamentos observados no mercado é um clássico neste blogue.

Por exemplo, recordar "Acerca da Totoestratégia" de Julho de 2012 ou "O modelo NK de Kauffman - uma introdução" de Dezembro de 2010:

Empresas que procuram subir na paisagem competitiva em busca de melhores retornos ou menos ameaças e que têm de estar alerta porque, quando menos se espera, o espaço onde se movem altera-se, e a posição onde se aterra pode significar a morte, ou pelos menos muita dor.

Depois, com Nenonen e Storbacka, assume-se que as empresas podem ser elas próprias a alterar a paisagem competitiva em seu benefício. Os mercados não são, vão sendo "markets are not – they become" de Março de 2015:
"I suggest that in addition to repositioning their products to accommodate customer preferences firms also change the distribution of customer preferences to accommodate the firms’ products.
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Specifically, I argue that firms alter customer preferences by adding, removing, and transforming the dimensions of the demand landscape.
...
Managers often assume that customer tastes are fixed and that the only way to improve a product’s appeal to customers is to change the products’ attributes to better accommodate the customers’ preferences. In this paper, I consider two approaches firms can take to changing customer preferences to better accommodate their products. One approach is to convince the customers that the combination of attributes offered by a focal product, e.g., the Apple iPhone is more valuable than the combination of attributes a customer is used to consuming. An alternative approach is to manipulate the customer’s perception of similarity between a product she is used to buying and the focal firm’s product."
Relacionar também com a sugestão "mudar de clientes", de mudar de vida.

Continua.

terça-feira, agosto 06, 2019

"the importance of saying “no”"

Dizer não, é difícil e, muitas vezes, nunca chega a ser enunciado. Afirmamos as escolhas do que decidimos fazer e não clarificamos as escolhas do que não queremos, ou não devemos fazer. Por vezes isso dá asneira grossa. Sobretudo quando se compete em mercados muito competitivos, mercados polarizados (um link de Maio de 2006) e cheios de salami-slicers, não de Bruce Jenners. Segue-se aquela sensação de não ser nem carne, nem peixe, um stuck-in-the-middle, um médio que não se diferencia, que não emociona ninguém, que não tem inimigos.
"Remember the days when Tim Cook would brag about how Apple’s product line could fit on a single table? It would be much harder to make that claim today.
...
When Jobs returned to Apple in 1997, he slashed the company’s product line to a few core products and preached the importance of saying “no” — not just to ideas you don’t like, but also to those you love if they don’t work within the larger vision. [Moi ici: Recordar "the next big thing"] He revitalized the company with a focused product line, which helped grow its cult following. [Moi ici: Recordar o recente "The paradox of focusing on a niche"] As Apple’s values change, this kind of focus is under threat.
...
Apple under Jobs wasn’t perfect. Jobs certainly wasn’t either. But it’s undeniable that Apple stood for something that redefined our expectations of personal computing and mobile devices. The company’s products looked great, and the options were streamlined, not confusing. Their prices were aspirational but, usually, attainable.
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Cook’s Apple has shifted from focusing on the products to focusing on the share price."
Trechos retirados de "Apple’s Product Line Is a Mess"

quinta-feira, agosto 01, 2019

Curiosidade do dia

"Gillette boss: Alienating some consumers with #metoo campaign was a price worth paying" e "Nonshavers, rivals bleeding Gillette as P&G takes $8B writedown".

Democratização da produção (Parte VI)

Parte I, Parte II, Parte IIIParte IV e Parte V.

Um bom remate final para esta série passa pelo artigo "Patient-innovators fill gaps that industry hasn’t addressed — or can’t":
"Here’s a long-held assumption that’s ripe for a challenge: Valuable improvements in health and patient care should come from experts in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and related industries.
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There’s no question that such professionals are essential for innovation. But our research shows that patient-innovators also have important roles to play and will fill significant gaps that industry hasn’t addressed — or can’t. [Moi ici: E volto ao exemplo da Deutsch Post e da sua carrinha eléctrica]
...
To understand what drives patient-innovators like these and the challenges they face, we worked with colleagues around the world to conduct nationally representative surveys in six countries. We also had face-to-face discussions with groups of collaborating patient-innovators.
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One of the big surprises from this work was how many people have embarked on journeys of medical innovation: as many as one million people in the six countries surveyed reported having developed medically related products for personal use.[Moi ici: E vai ser cada vez mais fácil, barato e natural experimentar]
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What drives most patient-innovators is the realization that something they want or need isn’t commercially available."
A fazer-me recuar mais de 12 anos e procurar esta citação:
"In 1970, 5% of global patents were issued to small entrepeneurs, while today the number is around one-third and rising."
E confrontar com:
"In addition to fulfilling a personal need, patient-innovators are also attracted by the learning they gain from the process and from sharing their innovations with people with similar needs. In short, it is a highly self-rewarding endeavor." 
Se não fosse esta disponibilidade para partilhar, os "small entrepreneurs" ainda tinham um peso muito maior no número de patentes.


Democratização da produção (Parte V)

Parte I, Parte II, Parte III e Parte IV.

"Companies have intuitively known for many years that product personalization was an inevitable progression of modern manufacturing. Indeed, the concept of mass customization, which has been around for a few decades, is an early, even primitive, attempt to implement a more personalized manufacturing and service environment and respond better to customers.
...
Technological advances and digital developments are emerging and spreading throughout the manufacturing environment so quickly that point-of-demand production is inevitable in virtually every industry; indeed, it’s already being implemented. Eventually this will lead to cars made by companies like Local Motors — but also Toyota, Honda, and GM [Moi ici: Isto é tão LOL. Como é que organizações dedicadas ao vómito industrial vão-se adaptar a serem alfaites e costureiras. Come on!] — being self-designed by adventurous consumers and built on 3D printers. And as customers taste the benefits of real product personalization, they will demand more of it, driving higher margins to companies that are equipped for customization and forcing all manufacturers to develop those capabilities if they hope to survive. In the end, companies that are prepared for the point-of-demand manufacturing phenomenon will thrive. But they must begin now to rethink their long-term manufacturing strategies and to implement the processes, systems, and technologies that will completely alter the way they interact with customers, make production decisions, establish factory footprints, and compete in their industries."
Trechos retirados de "Manufacturing’s new world order - The rise of the point-of-demand model"