quarta-feira, junho 22, 2016

O dinheiro não é o mais importante (parte II)

Parte I.
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Já depois de ter escrito e publicado a parte I. Dou de caras com estes tweets:



Tinha de copiar este texto de Nassim Taleb no FB:
"I was at a venue where someone wanted to increase economic growth: "funding" and "investments" were mentioned every 240 characters.
Now some empiricism. Consider that almost all tech companies "in the tails" were not started by "funding". Take companies you are familiar with: Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook. These companies started with risk-taking. Funding came in small amounts, way later.
Now let us take the idea to its next logical step. The minute something called a "business plan" is created, the idea is corrupt and the BS start dominating. People start thinking in terms of other people's perception of the business, for "raising cash. Like prostitutes.
We can generalize to economic growth. The problem is that these discussions of "growth" are made by people who have never taken risks.[Moi ici: Vêm-me à memória de rajada, os nomes de Costa, Medina, Centeno e Caldeira que por estes dias andam entretidos a torrar dinheiro a brincar ás startups]
What is needed? 1) determination, 2) sophistication, 3) authenticity, 4) convexity and above all, 5) risk loving."[Moi ici: Na parte I elegi: 1e5paixão, 4experimentação, 2e3diferenciação e interacção]
O outro link, "Why Companies Fail & How To Prevent It" de Osterwalder tem um trecho bem interessante também:
"The reason why I point this out is because access to funding (in startups or established organizations) is often brought up as the key challenge in innovation or company building. However, The FRACTL study shows that money isn’t really the issue. In fact, the findings show that funded ventures (including those that raised $10 million USD or more) are more likely to run out of cash than bootstrapped ones. Why is that so? Because you are more likely to risk building something that nobody wants when you have the money to actually build it. Renowned venture capitalist Vinod Khosla famously argued that “people who raise more money reduce their probability of success”."[Moi ici: Relacionar com "Não será porque ..."]

BTW, recordar esta "Curiosidade do dia":
"Pensava que as startups tinham de tentar seduzir clientes e descobrir modelos de negócio com base em MVP. Afinal não, basta aderir a estas plataformas de apoio..." 

terça-feira, junho 21, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

 Concluímos então que o Banco de Portugal é anti-austeridade e não vê qualquer necessidade de relacionar produtividade e salário:
"Subir Lall, que está em Portugal para conduzir a quarta missão de monitorização do pós- programa, evitou os temas mais polémicos e em relação aos quais está em desacordo com o actual Governo. Contudo, Nuno Alves, sub-director do departamento de estudos do Banco de Portugal, que moderou o debate, surpreendeu o chefe de missão quando lhe perguntou se reconhece que o salário mínimo nacional (SMN) é um instrumento importante para reduzir a desigualdade.
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"Claro que não podemos deixar que a desigualdade cresça”, reconheceu, mas “o aumento dos rendimentos deve ser feito por via do aumento da procura e não através do aumento do SMN”. “Se estão preocupados com a desigualdade e com a pobreza, têm de se preocupar com os desempregados", defendeu este responsável, cujo organismo que representa defende que o aumento do SMN afecta negativamente a criação de emprego."
Estes directores do Banco de Portugal fazem-me recordar aquela frase: é preciso destruir a aldeia para salvar a aldeia.
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Estes catequistas são do pior para dar cabo da economia e estragar a vida às pessoas. Recordar a via negativa:
"Recall that the interventionista focuses on positive action - doing. Just like positive definitions, we saw that acts of commission are respected and glorified by our primitive minds and lead to, say, naive government interventions that end in disaster, followed by generalized complaints about naive government interventions, as these, it is now accepted, end in disaster, followed by more naive government interventions. Acts of omission, not doing something, are not considered acts and do not appear to be part of one’s mission. ... I have used all my life a wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice, exploiting our gullibility and sucker-proneness for recipes that hit you in a flash as just obvious, then evaporate later as you forget them.
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in practice it is the negative that’s used by the pros, those selected by evolution: chess grandmasters usually win by not losing; people become rich by not going bust (particularly when others do); religions are mostly about interdicts; the learning of life is about what to avoid. You reduce most of your personal risks of accident thanks to a small number of measures.
...
So the central tenet of the epistemology I advocate is as follows: we know a lot more what is wrong than what is right, or, phrased according to the fragile/robust classification, negative knowledge (what is wrong, what does not work) is more robust to error than positive knowledge (what is right, what works). So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition—given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily." 
Trecho retirado de "Subir Lall defende participação dos desempregados nas políticas laborais"

Um perfil diferente

Nos postais:
Referimos dois exemplos, o dos jornais e o dos centros comerciais, dois casos em que a internet está a arrasar os sectores. É o caso clássico da disrupção em favor dos que se sentem overserved.
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Por isso, não admira esta previsão sobre os empregos que mais vão desaparecer:
"The report said the top five occupations — in terms of number of people employed in them — facing a high risk of automation are:
  • Retail salesperson.
  • Administrative assistant.
  • Food counter attendant.
  • Cashier.
  • Transport truck driver.
The institute put a 70 per cent or higher probability that "high risk" jobs will be affected by automation over the next 10 to 20 years, and it said workers in the most susceptible jobs typically earn less and have lower education levels than the rest of the Canadian labour force."
Qual a solução que preconizo para as empresas que querem fazer face a este tipo de disrupção? Desistir de reconquistar o grosso dos antigos clientes, perdidos para sempre para o preço baixo, encolher e aprender a trabalhar para os underserved, os que estão dispostos a pagar mais por uma oferta diferente.
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Assim, de acordo com aquela previsão, vão desaparecer muitos empregos no retalho, empregos para "just warm bodies" mas ao mesmo tempo vão aparecer muitos empregos (embora menos do que os que vão desaparecer) para um tipo de perfil diferente de vendedor ou de funcionário de loja, um ajudante, um conselheiro que ajuda a co-construir experiências de valor acrescentado. Idem no jornalismo.
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Serão uma versão do que aconteceu aquela fábrica de calçado que não conseguia vender sapatos a 20€ e que hoje prospera a vendê-los a 230€.

Trecho retirado de "42% of Canadian jobs at high risk of being affected by automation, new study suggests"

BTW
"El comercio electrónico prácticamente se ha triplicado en España entre 2009 y 2014,
...
El continente latinoamericano ha cuadruplicado el volumen de ventas online con una Tasa Compuesta de Crecimiento Anual del 34% en el periodo 2009-14,"

O dinheiro não é o mais importante

Primeiro, a paixão:
"Sempre que entrava numa loja da Osklen, Ana Costa tinha vontade de perder a cabeça. A designer, de 28 anos, confessa que queria comprar tudo."
Depois, a experimentação:
"não tinha contactos de fábricas nem de fornecedores e, por isso, decidiu pôr-se no caminho e bater às portas de potenciais parceiros. Contactos feitos e, com um investimento de 28 mil euros (que entretanto já devolveu aos ‘investidores’), Ana desenhou a primeira coleção da +351, uma maneira tímida e cautelosa de se apresentar ao mercado. Mas, sobretudo, uma forma de testar o produto no público-alvo." 
Depois, a aposta na diferenciação:
"Por isso, no segundo ano, foi altura de arriscar: novos materiais, estampagens e os seus desafios favoritos: tingimentos. “Já havia tantas marcas de swimwear, eu não queria fazer mais uma. Queria escolher bem os materiais e os cortes para criar peças que vão durar, que são intemporais. Peças que pudesse usar sempre”, detalha." 
Depois, chegar ao consumidor (loja própria, loja multimarca, e online):
"“Abrir um ponto de venda próprio foi muito importante porque, em lojas multimarca, a marca perde identidade.”
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O passo seguinte foi começar a procurar lojas multimarca onde vender o produto. Mas Ana percebeu que, mais fácil do que vender online ou noutras lojas, seria ter um espaço próprio, onde pudesse reunir o próprio espaço de criação e o contacto mais direto com os clientes."
Assim, parece fácil. O dinheiro não é o mais importante: paixão e diferenciação são mais importantes.

Trechos retirados de "+351. Nome de código: roupa de surf pensada e feita em Portugal"

Estratégia em todo lado - não é winner-take-all (parte II)

Parte I.
"Economists missed the fact that matchmakers, just like any other businesses, can differentiate themselves."
Este artigo "The On-Demand Economy Hits The Reset Button" é um alerta para aquilo que é único em cada serviço, não basta uma plataforma:
"Venture capitalists who believed that Uber and Lyft’s model was widely applicable poured billions of dollars into this new convenience economy. Collectively, these startups became known as "Uber for X," or the on-demand economy.
...
Biyani realized that he couldn’t rely on independent contractors in the way that allowed Lyft and Uber to grow without ever hiring drivers or buying vehicles. Sprig’s first three staff hires were chefs.
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In the past several months, the rest of the tech world has come to understand what Biyani discovered almost immediately: The on-demand economy is more complicated than merely applying a clever business model to different service sectors. None of the many startups that adopted Uber’s business model has managed to make it work as magnificently as Uber.
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Some pundits deem it the "on-demand apocalypse." But what’s going on here is not so much the thinning of an oversaturated market as its maturation. On-demand companies use their networks and mobile technology to achieve a competitive advantage (and their traditional rivals are catching on quickly). But delivering food, it turns out, is not the same as dispatching cars. And providing child care is different from delivering food. This should not be a surprise: One can learn from a successful business model, but copying it verbatim almost never yields a similarly stellar result.
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The businesses that once were happy to be lumped together in the hot trend are now realizing that, to survive and thrive, they can’t just be tech companies.[Moi ici: Mais um ponto a favor das plataformas cooperativas]
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Despite the doomsaying, "on demand" is not going away. What is really dying is "on demand" as a category. It’s not unlike what happened with the "Internet economy" of the late 1990s. All those celebrated "Internet startups"? We have a word for them today. We call them businesses."

Transformar, apesar do travesti (parte I)

Durante muitos anos a representação do funcionamento de uma empresa foi o tosco organigrama:

Os anos 90 do século passado, com a reengenharia, deram alento há abordagem por processos.
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A ISO 9001 democratizou o uso da abordagem por processos. Isso levou a que em muitas empresas aquilo a que se chamam processos não passe de uma farsa, são na realidade departamentos travestidos de processos.
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A verdade é que:
Agora, imaginem querer transformar uma empresa recorrendo à abordagem por processos, quando essa empresa tem, na verdade, departamentos travestidos de processos no seu mapa de processos...

Continua.

segunda-feira, junho 20, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

Como eu sorrio, numa espécie de Mateus 11:25, quando vejo os governos a tomar a exportadoras grandes como as que dão emprego e fazem mover a economia. Basta recordar o meu critério "Acerca das exportações dos primeiros 4 meses de 2016".
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A única preocupação é que as empresas grandes ao obterem para si benesses, para supostamente aumentarem mais as exportações, consigam prejudicar as PME onde a vida económica do país realmente acontece.
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O socialismo de biombos, carpetes e corredores de que falo é isto:
Aposto que a seguir reúnem com a CGD para fomentar esta economia de oligarcas.
"De um lado, estava o primeiro-ministro acompanhado pelos ministros da Economia e dos Negócios Estrangeiros; do outro, "duas dezenas de empresários", entre os quais estavam os líderes da Semapa, Auto-Europa, Mota Engil, Galp e Continental Mabor. O objectivo era "ouvir os empresários sobre o que fazer para reforçar as exportações", adiantou o comentador."
Tudo exemplo de empresas em que o negócio é preço.
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Muitos, talvez a maioria dos empresários que conheço e que fazem parte da economia dinâmica que exporta à custa de valor acrescentado nos sectores tradicionais não tem tempo para fazer estes números de beija-mão no palácio. Há muito que seguiram este conselho "O que o país precisa é de PME's competitivas que façam by-pass ao estado, que compitam no mercado global."

Trecho retirado de "António Costa chama empresários a São Bento".

Acerca da servitization (parte II)

Parte I.
,
Esta semana, já depois de ter escrito "Acerca da servitization" ouvi, incrédulo na rádio uma versão deste caso "Update on Incident: TAP A332 at Lisbon on Jul 12th 2014, engine shut down in flight". O meu lado cínico à solta pôs-me logo a pensar em que muito do que se escreve como exemplo pode não passar de infoplacement, uma forma mais rebuscada de publicidade sem conteúdo real.
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Isto é muito lindo:
"Equipment focussed product life-cycle offerings including maintenance services support products already sold. An ongoing support tends to become on-site maintenance.
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Asset focused managed services create a higher level of complexity as they are made up of different but interlinked or interdependent pieces of equipment and several suppliers. This calls for a dedicated organizational function to manage the assets and coordinate the support activities. A servitizing manufacturing firm can find an opportunity to enter this area of managed services.
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Process focused advisory or consulting services can offer technical and management advice, pro-active problem solving through co-innovation as well as reactive problem solving. Given sufficient understanding of their customer´s and user´s world the servitized manufacturing firm can offer and even implement solutions using their own monetary resources, their own equipment and other physical assets, their own relationships, their competence in people and processes, their own brands etc."
Contudo, quando se adia uma manutenção programada porque não havia espaço na agenda do responsável pela manutenção...
"The difficulty for the engine manufacturer, for reasons related to the contracts with the various operators and/or availability, to schedule an earlier Quick Turn that resulted in ESN 811471 engine reaching a CSN above the desired (taking into account the record of previous events) for its removal;"

Plataformas em todo o lado

"But the nature of competition and strategy is quite different in a platform-based business, said Van Alstyne:
  • The goal is interactions [Moi ici Estão a ver porque isto é perigoso ""] that yield network effects and provide growth and sustainability, - not protecting market niches or erecting industry barriers.
  • Industry boundaries can be altered as appropriate, - rather than sticking to sharply defined categories.
  • Competition is multi-layered, “more like 3D chess”, - rather than just relaying on product differentiation or lower costs.
  • Competitors are turned into complementors that offer their products or services on the platform - there’s no longer a need to own unique, inimitable resources.
...
With platforms, a critical strategic aim is strong up-front design that will attract the desired participants, enable the right interactions (so-called core interactions), and encourage ever-more-powerful network effects… while guarding against threats remains critical, the focus of strategy shifts to eliminating barriers to production and consumption in order to maximize value creation…  To that end, platform executives must make smart choices about access (whom to let onto the platform) and governance (or control - what consumers, producers, providers, and even competitors are allowed to do there)…”
Trecho retirado de "Platforms and the New Rules of Strategy"

"Who murdered strategy?"

"When strategy is murdered in an organization who is blamed, who is the equivalent of the butler? Fortunately you do not have to wait to the last page to find out. Amazingly the strategy itself is blamed. Leaders say ‘‘well the strategy must have been wrong’’ and move on. This is amazing because leaders never look beyond their first (and often) only suspect. If it was not the strategy then who else can be responsible?.The implementation.As an implementation specialist whose work starts after the strategy has been crafted, I am more than happy with strategy constantly taking the blame. But it is a short sighted view that is damaging and distorting leaders’ implementation abilities. Leaders must recognize that strategy implementation is extremely difficult and that they habitually underestimate its challenges. They perceive crafting strategy as the harder challenge and therefore by default blame the toughest area when it fails. Executing strategy, however, is just as tough as crafting the right strategy. Therefore typically it is evenly balanced where the blame lies for strategy’s murder....Currently too many leaders delegate their implementation responsibilities and do not follow through on the actionsWhen leaders stop paying attention to the implementation so do the staff members and it starts to fail. Leaders must take more time to reflect that the suspects for strategy’s murder come from both strategy and its implementation....Before you start the implementation of your next strategy, take the time to learn from what has happened before in your organization. Take the time to: * make sure you know why previous strategies have failed;* examine what happened in both the planning and the implementation of the strategy;* identify lessons that can be shared;* understand what works and what doesn’t in your culture;* identify the critical success factors for moving forward; and
* constantly review your new implementation to ensure you are not repeating mistakes."

Trechos retirados de "Who murdered strategy?", Strategic Direction, Vol. 27 Iss 9 pp. 3 - 5, Robin Speculand, (2011).

Por que as grandes estratégias têm de ser fora da caixa

"Great strategies always go against the grain of accepted wisdom. Markets and organizations have powerful immune systems that erect multiple barriers to implementing them. Leaders who own their strategies are more likely to persevere through such resistance, and prevail. Great strategies take leaders who believe enough in them — and the ideas they depend on — to be willing to fight their own organization and the broader market for however long it takes to realize the strategy."
Este trecho fez-me logo relacionar com estes outros:
"The real power of a well-crafted corporate theory [Moi ici: Outra forma de referir a estratégia] becomes evident as companies go shopping for the assets to test their theories. Value creation through markets always comes down to prices paid, and a good corporate theory enables the acquirer to spot bargains that are uniquely discerned or uniquely available to it.
...
The mark of a well-crafted corporate theory is the uniqueness of the value creating opportunities it reveals. This uniqueness may stem from the uniqueness of the foresight the theory reveals or from the uniqueness of the assets and capabilities a company already possesses."
Ou seja, se uma estratégia não for ao arrepio do senso comum "toda a gente" verá a oportunidade e, assim, haverá muitos licitadores a quererem adquirir os meios para executar essa estratégia. Então, numa espécie de guerra de licitações num leilão, os meios serão adquiridos a um preço tal que dificilmente se ganhará dinheiro, uma espécie de "winner's curse" (aqui e aqui).
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Trecho inicial retirado de "Why Popular Strategies Always Fade"
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Trechos finais retirados de "Beyond competitive advantage : how to solve the puzzle of sustaining growth while creating value" de Todd Zenger.

domingo, junho 19, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

Primeiro:
"Desagradado com a situação, Dijsselbloem avisou mais tarde que está a "tentar compreender" o que tudo isto significa e vincou que lei é lei e as regras são para cumprir."
 Depois:
"A cultura católica é uma cultura de grandes futebolistas e também uma cultura de grandes batoteiros.
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E não só no futebol. É esta tendência para a batota, para transgredir as regras, que, a prazo,  torna a Democracia ou o Estado de Direito Democrático, que é um governo de regras,  impossível num país de tradição católica."
Por fim:
"After a hard-fought 1-0 match between Portugal and a team representing DHL’s Brussels aviation hub, the Belgian coach claimed that the Portuguese squad had surreptitiously substituted fresh players more often than tournament rules allowed, giving the team an advantage on a brutally hot day.
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While Peter Kruse graciously if grudgingly offered congratulations to the Portuguese team after its match with Germany, Peter Caes, the Brussels Aviation coach, months later remained upset that officials didn’t penalize Portugal for its violation of tournament regulations"

Não será porque ...

"If you look at what’s happened in big cities around the U.S. in recent years, it’s easy to think we’re living in Startup Nation. Thanks to the plummeting cost and increased availability of digital tools, as well as greater access to early-stage funding, we’ve seen what the Economist has called a “Cambrian moment,” with digital startups “bubbling up in an astonishing variety of services and products.”
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Meanwhile, though, a host of economic researchers have been telling a much bleaker story: American entrepreneurship is actually on the decline, and has been for decades.
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According to the Commerce Department, the number of new businesses started by Americans has fallen sharply since 2000, and so too has the percentage of American workers working for companies that are less than a year old.
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So has America lost its appetite for risk? Not really. It is true that the number of new businesses has fallen, but much of that decline has been concentrated in what economists call “subsistence” businesses. These are businesses whose founders have no interest in creating a big company.
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A small percentage of new businesses, though, are different: from the start, their ambition is to become big. These businesses are run by “transformational” entrepreneurs
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While Stern and Guzman show that high-growth firms are being formed as actively as ever, they also find that these companies are not succeeding as often as such companies once did. As the researchers put it, “Even as the number of new ideas and potential for innovation is increasing, there seems to be a reduction in the ability of companies to scale in a meaningful and systematic way.” As many seeds as ever are being planted. But fewer trees are growing to the sky.
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Stern and Guzman are agnostic about why this is happening. But one obvious answer suggests itself: the increased power of established incumbents. We may think that we have been living in a business world in which incumbents are always on the verge of being toppled and competitive advantage is more fragile than ever."
Há dias, num dos episódios da série "Endeavour" no canal Fox Crime, um autista era excepcional a desenhar, a pintar, algo que tinha vista uma só vez. No final do episódio, num raro momento de exteriorização o autista confessava: "quem me dera saber criar, ser inovador" (e não um copiador, um recitador da realidade). Lembrei-me logo de algo que li em Gigerenzer "the art of focusing on what’s important and ignoring the rest", acerca de um russo que conseguia citar de memória o conteúdo da página 237 de um livro mas era incapaz de dizer o que queria dizer o que tinha acabado de citar.
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Fico sempre a pensar nestes casos quando leio trechos como os que retirei de "Why Startups Are Struggling". Sigam-me por favor:
  1. American entrepreneurship is actually on the decline, and has been for decades.
  2. but much of that decline has been concentrated in what economists call “subsistence” businesses. These are businesses whose founders have no interest in creating a big company.
  3. A small percentage of new businesses, though, are different: from the start, their ambition is to become big.
  4. high-growth firms are being formed as actively as ever, they also find that these companies are not succeeding as often as such companies once did.
Não será porque há mais startups do mesmo tipo a tentar seduzir o mesmo número limitado de potenciais clientes?
Não será porque a realidade acelerou?

Custa-me a crer que sejam os incumbentes.


Um exemplo a seguir com atenção (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
"2015 marked the newspaper sector’s worst year since the Great Recession, with average weekday circulation for both print and digital subscriptions falling another 7 percent, the biggest dip since 2010. It’s not just circulation—most of the stats point down. In 2015, publicly traded newspaper companies’ overall advertising revenue fell 8 percent, the greatest decline since 2009. Accordingly, newsroom employment has continued to plunge, with an overall loss of about 20,000 positions (39 percent) over the past 20 years.
...
The death of newspapers seems imminent.
...
In other words, newspapers no longer own the news. And not just financially. Newspapers are losing their grasp end to end, as tech companies become more integral to the news experience by introducing new distribution platforms (e.g., Facebook’s Instant Articles) and overtaking the core elements that have traditionally defined the newspaper industry."
Nesta série estamos a ver um exemplo de um sector, centros comerciais, a fazer experiências para dar a volta e arranjar alternativas para ultrapassar disrupção a servir os overserved. O que é que a imprensa arcaica está a fazer? Estão exactamente na mesma situação, a ser disrompidos pela internet a favor dos overserved. Recordar o choradinho de Janeiro passado em que circulava movimento para pedir ao Estado que obrigasse os contribuintes a pagar a sua existência, sem experiências, sem fuçar, sem evolução:



Trecho retirado de "The Hourglass Is 'Nearing Empty' on the Newspaper Industry"

Parte IV - ainda experimentando mais com mais experiências

Parte I, parte II e parte III.
"America's malls have been dying for years. Of the nearly 1,200 enclosed malls in the U.S., one-third are doing so poorly that they aren't generating enough money to pay for the maintenance of the structures themselves. Part of this decline can be traced to the Internet. Now that consumers can easily buy products online, brick-and-mortar retail stores can't afford to simply serve as showcase rooms, only to see visitors buy the very products they offer from Amazon at lower prices. They need to offer exceptional in-person experiences to keep customers coming, buying in, and returning to their stores.
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In the midst of this graveyard of malls, new retail concepts are emerging.
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"We're really interested in creating a reason for customers to come to the store several times a week.
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He points out that a brick-and-mortar store needed to offer more than a mere physical space for selling products. Boyarsky wants people to associate his brand with not only fashionable activewear, but also a whole world of experiences connected to wellness surrounding fitness, nutrition, and special activities. "We want to be seen as a curator of the fitness world,""
Trecho retirado de "In The Graveyard Of American Malls, Bandier Is Reimagining The Brick-And-Mortar Store"

Qual é a lógica? (parte II)

Parte I.

Já tinha este postal rascunhado desde o dia 17. Publico-o agora ancorado ao exemplo concreto referido na parte I.
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Trecho inicial retirado de "Problemas de país rico", só para salientar que o conteúdo deste postal vai ser muito útil nos próximos tempos em Portugal:
"Nos próximos meses será essencial não esquecer que Portugal é um país rico, moderno, desenvolvido. Avizinham-se momentos de grande turbulência, aperto, dificuldade, onde será fácil perder de vista esta realidade que, no entanto, permanece indiscutível. Precisamente porque deixaremos muito do que agora gozamos, é bom não esquecer tudo o que, apesar disso, ainda temos. Uma crise conjuntural, mesmo grande, não chega a afectar a estrutura nacional."
A tentação para fazer descontos vai ser grande. Por isso, faz sentido ler: "Confessions of the Pricing Man: How Price Affects Everything" de Hermann Simon:
"Price concessions can come in the form of cash rebates, which reduce the transaction price, or in the form of additional goods and services. Offering goods and services instead of lower prices has several advantages during a crisis:Price: The nominal price level is not harmed.- Profit: Assuming the same percentage, the supplier is better off profitwise by offering goods or services instead of a straight discount.- Volume: This form of discount generates more volume and keeps people working....Using goods as a means to deliver a discount improves volume, employee utilization, and profit. This kind of offer has an additional advantage. If the manufacturer designates it as a temporary measure during the crisis , it is easier to rescind when the crisis ends."
Não teria feito sentido a Bel lançar o novo produto com um preço premium e aplicar um "leve 2 pague 1!?

sábado, junho 18, 2016

Curiosidade do dia

"Disse que Portugal está a “sair de um momento de arrefecimento económico que aconteceu desde meados de 2015”"
Por isso, é que isto está a acontecer "Actividade económica entra em terreno negativo pela primeira vez desde 2013".
"Criticou o discurso “destrutivo e que não interessa a ninguém “"
Por isso, é que este mesmo senhor usava argumentação deste tipo, manipulação das séries, quando estava na oposição:

Parte III - experimentando com mais experiências

Parte I e parte II
"Macy’s new concept store seems to have been conceived by dutifully checking off boxes on a “hot retail trends” list.
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On June 25, the struggling department store chain will unveil a new prototype in a renovated store at the Easton Town Center in Columbus, Ohio, filled with lifestyle shops that play up services.
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The mix of in-store shops includes the Restore, Nourish and Strengthen boutique, stocked with athletic wear such as Finish Line footwear, Fitbit watches and even a juice and smoothie bar, according to The Columbus Dispatch. With the shop, staffed with health and fitness “ambassadors,” Macy’s is angling for a piece of the only robust part of the apparel market, while capitalizing on the nation’s ever burgeoning health and wellness trend.
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The store will also debut a free personal-shopper service dubbed, My Stylist @Macy’s; a LensCrafters eyeglass shop with licensed opticians; and a Bluemercury spa by the beauty chain Macy’s acquired last year, offering facials and waxings. Bluemercury reflects Macy’s move to modernize its beauty business along the lines of hot — and hipper — freestanding concepts like Sephora .
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A revamped wedding services department is also on tap, clearly a bid by Macy's M +2.59% to appeal to Millennials, the coveted generation that’s displaced Baby Boomers as the nation’s biggest buying group and is projected to generate $1.4 trillion in sales by 2020, according to Accenture ACN +0.00%.
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Macy’s efforts to offer lifestyle shops spiced up with services and on-staff experts points to an urgent push to counter the encroachment of e-commerce by giving consumers something online shopping can’t: tangible experiences and in-person pampering.
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Macy’s will be watching closely how shoppers take to the new prototype to see what can be rolled out to other stores. And management is crossing their fingers. ”Instead of teaching someone to ring a register, we’re hiring people who understand the lifestyle,” said Kathi Newton, vice president and store manager told the Columbus Dispatch. “I think this is going to be a real game-changer.” We’ll see."


"Can Facials And Fitness Experts Revive Macy's?"

Qual é a lógica?

Há uns anos, quando li a estória pela primeira vez, elogiei-os pela ideia e pelo agitar das águas fétidas e calmas habituadas à conversa do preço mais baixo. Recordar "Proactividade no sector do leite (parte I)"
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No entanto, fez ontem exactamente um mês escrevi "Soa-me estranho ..." que termina desta forma triste e desanimada:
"Fico desconfiado que não acreditam na estratégia que definiram... que afinal não passa de marketing."
Esta manhã fui ao talho a Estarreja. Como de costume estacionei o carro longe da confusão, junto a uma pouco frequentada loja do Minipreço.
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No regresso ao carro tive uma surpresa!
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Num flash... Hermann Simon, o Evangelho do Valor, Marn e Rosielo, Ron Baker, este blogue, passaram pela minha cabeça.
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Com uma certa tristeza, saquei do telefone para fotografar o que acabara de ver... a comprovação do que escrevera naquele postal de Maio passado:

Então uma empresa desenvolve uma estratégia baseada na diferenciação, para se decomoditizar, apela a vantagens competitivas que reforcem o valor percepcionado pelos potenciais clientes e, depois, lança a novidade como se fosse um produto de preço-baixo? Qual é a lógica?
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Será que na Bel ninguém estuda o Evangelho do Valor? Será que ninguém percebe que a lógica da diferenciação tem de jogar noutro campeonato?
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Será que se habituarem os clientes desde o início a preço-baixo para o leite de pastagem alguma vez o conseguirão colocar no patamar de preço mais alto, justificável pelos atributos e, sobretudo pelo intangível associado à narrativa das vacas felizes da pastagem ao ar livre?
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Será que a malta do marketing, e a da comercial, e a da da gestão estratégica na Bel conversa entre si?
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Continua, com uma lição útil para a Bel e para todas as empresas, sobretudo aquando da próxima crise financeira que o país vai viver.

O consumidor de Mongo (parte III)

Parte I e parte II.
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A parte I começa com:
"Connected technology and intelligent use of data have already enabled"
A tecnologia da produção em massa da revolução industrial com a electricidade e o comboio criaram o mercado de massas do século XX. Agora, novamente, as tecnologias do final do século XX e do inicio do século XXI permitiram o advento de Mongo, e esse advento permite que um novo tipo de consumidor apareça. E quanto mais esse consumidor aparece, mais ficamos todos weird, e mais Mongo se entranha. Olhando para as 5 categorias que caracterizam os consumidores de Mongo, avançadas nas partes I e II não fica difícil antever o bailado com a IoT, com as impressoras 3D, com o DIY, com as tribos, com os novos materiais, com os novos modelos de negócio, ...
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Uma co-evolução em que um diz mata e o outro diz esfola!