False profits

Como é possível ser um chico esperto tão incompetente… #worten https://t.co/zUXFh8nKSO

— poingg (@poingg) November 25, 2017

"False profits...
Some brands have even institutionalised false profits. I have learned of an airline that instituted a bonus system based on the over-weight baggage charges they manage to accumulate, as well as of a rental car company who offers gift vouchers to the rep having claimed the most damages on vehicles being returned (I wonder if these vouchers expire?).
.
But even if you are less aggressive about what surely are not long-term profit maximising practices, it is probably worth conducting a thorough analysis of your company profits, maybe guided by customer complaints. What is the percentage of profits that can be linked to customer complaints? Are these worth it? Common sense says no. But you can go further and observe the behaviour of customers hit with complaint-generating profits."

E na sua empresa?

Muitas vezes cliente e fornecedor têm uma relação de surdos.

Empresa fornecedora comenta comigo que um seu cliente importante lhe tinha prometido entregar um serviço subcontratado e acabou por descobrir que afinal vai ser feito por outra empresa. Quando olho para os indicadores da empresa fornecedora tento convencê-los de que o cliente tomou uma decisão correcta, dado os problemas que está a receber nos subcontratos actuais. Não é fácil ver o mundo calçando os sapatos do outro.

Trecho retirado de "False profits and the folly of gift card expiry dates"

Cooperativas, partes interessadas, valor e a sua partilha

Se a maior riqueza que há num ecossistema é a sua biodiversidade, porque encerra em si a robustez para lidar com o desconhecido, também numa economia a heterogeneidade e idiossincrasia é algo positivo pelas mesmas razões.

Recentemente visitei empresa muito bem sucedida e que, imaginem:

• desistiu de crescer em quantidade, só aposta em crescer por aumento de preços, por subida na escala de valor;
• rejeita clientes;
• rejeita crescer mais do que um certo valor por cliente;
• rejeita convites de clientes para investir em novas fábricas em mercados onde esses clientes estão a implantar-se ou a expandir-se.

A gerência consegue explicar o racional por trás de cada uma dessas decisões. Outra gerência composta por outras pessoas poderia tomar outras decisões. Não há resposta certa, não há resposta única.

Sabendo e crendo na frase "Não há resposta certa, não há resposta única.", apesar de tudo, fico com pena disto "Aumenta procura direta de azeitona em Murça devido a quebras a nível internacional":

"A azeitona sai daqui a granel e não colocamos nós as nossas marcas no mercado internacional”, salientou. O responsável considerou ainda que, com esta venda direta, “não há mais-valia para o azeite de Trás-os-Montes”."

Quem segue este blogue sabe o quanto valorizo a aposta:

• na autenticidade;
• na fuga ao granel comoditizado;
• na aposta numa marca;
• na subida na escala de valor;

No entanto, também sei que cada produtor é que sabe da sua vida.

O que levanta outra questão:

"esta situação pode “condicionar a vida das próprias cooperativas”." 

Até que ponto as cooperativas estão a fazer o seu trabalho? Até que ponto as cooperativas estão a tratar os produtores como partes interessadas livres que devem ser cativadas e seduzidas para um projecto de longo prazo? Até que ponto as cooperativas estão a recompensar convenientemente os produtores? Até que ponto as cooperativas têm elas próprias uma gestão suficientemente ágil? Para eventualmente melhorar preços a pagar aos produtores e negociar melhores condições com a procura? Para aproveitar oportunidades e colocar em novas prateleiras o seu azeite numa altura de escassez? Para subir preços em tempos de escassez?

Imaginem uma cooperativa com um sistema de gestão certificado pela ISO 9001 a marcar uma revisão do sistema extraordinária para actualizar a análise do contexto e das partes interessadas e tomar decisões à priori, a comandar os acontecimentos em vez de, com as calças na mão, ir a reboque dos acontecimentos.

BTW, estão a ver aquelas simulações sobre a vida das estratégias? Uma estratégia tem sucesso e a maioria das empresas está a tentar ter sucesso seguindo-a. Depois, algo muda no contexto, e uma empresa-pioneira testa uma nova abordagem e tem algum sucesso, à medida que essa abordagem vai se aperfeiçoando, o sucesso vai aumentando, o próprio contexto co-evolui e o spill-over começa a contaminar outras empresas que começam a seguir a mesma estratégia. Então, a densidade de uso da estratégia anterior começa a baixar e a da nova estratégia começa a subir. Depois, algures no tempo, uma nova alteração de contexto e uma nova experiência a nível de estratégia. Experiência que pode passar por recuperar uma estratégia anterior, uma estratégia entretanto abandonada.

Voltar a uma estratégia entretanto abandonada pode ser um retrocesso, pode ser um erro, pode ser muita coisa, mas voltamos ao princípio e à idiossincrasia.

"short-lived consumer trends"

“If you’re selling the same merchandise that’s commonly available, and you’ve got no point of differentiation, you’re dead,” Mr. Rubin said. “It’s just a question of when you die.”

Comecei a perceber como materializar isto com um artigo na revista Business Week em 2005 sobre o fim das linhas de montagem da Canon. E com a leitura em 2006 do livro "How We Compete: What Companies Around the World Are Doing to Make" onde encontrei trechos como este sobre a Kenwood:

"When Kenwood moved production of portable mini-disk players from a factory in Malaysia to their Yamagata, Japan, plant in 2003, they discovered they could exploit short-lived consumer trends."

Em 2017, esta abordagem continua a ser notícia, no país dos gringos:

"When Alejandro Villanueva, a Pittsburgh Steelers offensive lineman, stood for the anthem and the rest of the team stayed in the locker room, his name began trending on Twitter. Fanatics quickly posted a rendering of his No. 78 jersey on its website and on the N.F.L.’s online shop, which it also operates.
.
Sales skyrocketed. Manufacturing facilities in Kentucky and Florida went to work pressing Mr. Villanueva’s name and number onto thousands of blank Pittsburgh jerseys for next-day shipping. Overnight, a player who had never caught a pass or scored a touchdown had the N.F.L.’s best-selling jersey.
.
“That moment happened, people wanted to immediately buy that jersey,” Michael Rubin, the company’s chairman and principal owner said. “A week later, that moment is mostly over.”
.
These micro-moments, as Mr. Rubin calls them, happen all the time in sports: A player reaches a milestone, has a breakout performance or is traded to a new team. Apparel companies have traditionally been poorly positioned to meet the accompanying fan demand as it surges. Fanatics is changing that and, in the process, carving out a lucrative niche in a fiercely competitive online-retail industry largely dominated by Amazon."

Trechos retirados de "Fanatics, Maker of Sports Apparel, Thrives by Seizing the Moment"

"A Sale is the Result of a Great Conversation"

"To lead your customer to a thoughtful decision where they choose you over the competition, you need to help them form compelling beliefs about why you are the best choice. Your customers don’t form these beliefs just by listening to you talk, or by reading your marketing materials. You’ll be much more successful if you look at the customer’s entire purchase decision process as a conversation between you and them."

Trecho retirado de "A Sale is the Result of a Great Conversation"

Recordar os monumentos à treta, again

A propósito de "Infarmed. Ida para o Porto não estava no plano estratégico aprovado em setembro pelo ministro" fui consultar o referido Plano Estratégico 2017-2019.

Plano interessante, com uma estrutura interessante. No entanto, a meu ver, padece de uma falha importante... não encontrarão nenhum número que permita no final de 2019 avaliar se o Plano Estratégico foi eficaz ou não.

Olhando para cada um dos objectivos estratégicos e para cada um dos resultados esperados... não ser encontra nem um número, nem uma meta. Por exemplo:

Objectivo estratégico 2 - Conformidade do mercado e gestão do risco que tem como um dos seus resultados:

• Melhoria na gestão de risco na introdução de terapêuticas inovadoras

O que será ter sucesso com este objectivo estratégico?

O que significa, em que é que se traduz uma melhoria na gestão de risco na introdução de terapêuticas inovadoras?

Ainda e sempre os monumentos à treta... e de que falamos quando falamos de balanced.

Talvez focar primeiro o valor e só depois o preço (Parte II)

Parte I.

Nem de propósito, ontem de manhã cedo, antes de entrar numa empresa para uma auditoria li em "Using best value to get the best bottom line" de Kate Vitasek e incluído em "Value First then Price: Quantifying value in Business to Business markets", editado por Andreas Hinterhuber e Todd Snelgrove:

"the value mantra is: it's not how little you pay, it's how much you get. That's the basic difference and tension between price and value. And today's procurement professionals not only need to understand this difference, they should use their procurement toolkit to help them put the concepts into practice.
.
When used, best-value approaches become the bridge that spans that tension, because determining the true cost and value equation assures companies they are getting the best "deal".
.
Unfortunately, the usual modus operandi for many businesses is to seek price reductions that provide immediate gratification rather than buying on best value, which for many managers is too long-term, involves too many departments, ad is too complicated and abstract."

Talvez focar primeiro o valor e só depois o preço

Há dias mandei um e-mail a um antigo cliente, com quem trabalhei por causa da ISO 9001, a sugerir que contactasse uma empresa a oferecer os seus produtos.

Ainda no mesmo dia obtive resposta:

"Já apresentamos cotação e perdemos, por preço..."

Confesso que na altura não processei esta resposta convenientemente.

Entretanto, no meio de uma sessão de jogging, comecei a relacionar a resposta com as lições de "Value First then Price: Quantifying value in Business to Business markets", editado por Andreas Hinterhuber e Todd Snelgrove.

Tenho ideia que a empresa é competitiva em termos de custos... fiquei a pensar no que poderia ter feito de diferente para conseguir um resultado diferente.

Talvez focar primeiro o valor e só depois o preço. Talvez pensar no ciclo de vida do produto: a empresa produz mas o cliente precisa de armazenamento, distribuição, embalamento, ...

"Never blame your predecessor"

Um conjunto de boas sugestões.

Caro Eduardo, "Never blame your predecessor", faz-lhe lembrar alguma coisa?

"A 10-year longitudinal study on executive transitions that my organization conducted found that more than 50% of executives who inherit a mess fail within their first 18 months on the job. We also uncovered numerous landmines for leaders in this situation. And, with the best of intentions, my client was about to step on a number of them. When a leader inherits a mess created by others, especially when arriving as an outsider, the situation can feel fragile and knowing where to begin the long journey of change can feel precarious. Based on our research and my experience, there are six things the most effective leaders do to avoid failing in a new role.
.
Resist the temptation to emotionally distance yourself. Difficult and unfamiliar circumstances can make leaders feel vulnerable. To combat their anxiety, they actively avoid being implicated in the mess in subtle but damaging ways. Four weeks after my client’s arrival, I noticed a distinctive pattern in her language. When referring to the significant challenges of her new organization, she consistently spoke in third-person references — they, them, those people. And when speaking about possible changes that needed to be made, she spoke only in first-person language: I will, I don’t.
...
Never blame your predecessor. It’s a natural temptation to blame the past regime when entering organizations in disarray. In one meeting, my client’s frustration got the best of her, and while looking over the past quarter’s budget, she blurted out, “What on earth was he thinking?” Well, since “he” isn’t there anymore, everyone else in the room was implicated by proxy. Nobody knows better about the mess they are in than the people in it, much less about how it came to be. You are better off simply making no references to decisions or actions taken prior to your arrival. Your best response when being baited to blame those that came before you is simply, “We can’t change what happened then, but we can change what we do going forward.” People appreciate when you take the high road.
...
Minimize references to past successes. Absent any substantial experience in your new environment, the likely place to reference your track record is past successes. Chances are that you were hired into the role because you had relevant experiences. But talking about those experiences doesn’t help you leverage the wisdom from them.
...
Test the reliability of your data. While unvarnished data can be hard to come by when facing harsh headwinds, it’s even harder to come by when everyone wants to appear innocent and important.
...
Be transparent about how you will make changes. There are lots of rules about how fast an entering leader should make changes and how big they should be. Some suggest waiting 90 days, even up to a year, to learn the organization before upending anything. Some say clean house on day one. The speed of change will depend on your particular situation and what the business can tolerate. If immediate change is needed, make it. If you aren’t sure, then investigate and diagnose before you make your moves. My client’s thoughtful approach served her well in this regard. She was very transparent up front about how she would assess the organization, how she would approach making changes, and in what time frame. Her “leading out loud” allowed others not to wait in dread and also not to remain in denial. My client’s approach was to start with small wins championed by people in her organization."

Trechos retirados de "Leading Effectively When You Inherit a Mess"

Quando o mundo muda há quem dê a volta (parte II)

Parte I.

Deu-me para recordar o Lindy Effect ao ler "The old-fashioned mail-order catalog gets a new lease on life":

"In an era of explosive growth for online buying, retailers and shoppers are showing renewed interest in a humble purchasing device that uses paper instead of pixels.
...
For the first time since 2011, Sears Holdings sent out the Sears Wish Book, a holiday tradition for generations of children. Although this year’s catalog has the heft of a magazine rather than the phone-book size that the department store produced back when it was a retail juggernaut, the offerings are more extensive and searchable online.
.
The ability to stand out in that physical mailbox is easier than it was 10 years ago.
...
In 2016. the response to catalogs increased 23% from the year before, ... In terms of catalogs, which make up one third of all direct mail, that means they were more likely to buy something than in the past several years.
.
Companies are using print catalogs to cut through email clutter and social-media saturation,
...
print catalogs will never be as popular as they once were, but that retailers appear to be using them as part of what he called an “omnichannel” approach that tries to more closely integrate a store’s website with its physical stores, such as buying online and picking up at the store the same day."

E isto:

"A survey included in a recent DMA report found that nearly one-third of those polled said getting a catalog drove them to shop online." 

"many simply collapse under the emotional toll it takes"

"For many leaders, the taxing nature of enterprise-level leadership is too great. Being sufficiently knowledgeable about context requires a huge tolerance for ambiguity and the acceptance of a perpetual learning curve. Making hard trade-offs means saying no to people and facing the many dysfunctional ways people deal with being disappointed by their leader. Shifting organizational designs means having to address the harsh realities of instigating major change — organization-wide anxiety, intensified political dynamics, and sometimes having to part ways with those not prepared for the new world you are creating. It’s no surprise that mental and physical stress-related illnesses are high among executives. While some executives thrive on the challenges inherent in the trailblazing work of strategy, many simply collapse under the emotional toll it takes. In our research, 38% of executives said they didn’t expect the loneliness and isolation that accompanied their jobs and 54% said they felt they were being held accountable for problems outside their control. Given the ruthlessly unforgiving nature of executive jobs, I encourage all my clients to have a team of professionals around them, including an executive coach, a licensed therapist, a personal trainer, and a nutritionist. That kind of “scaffolding” helps leaders bear the harsh realities of strategic leadership in healthier ways.
.
The work required to effectively craft and execute a company strategy is extraordinarily difficult. It’s no surprise that many try to oversimplify it, or dilute it to match whatever level of competence they have. But if organizations actually invested in preparing executives for the real requirements of these roles, we would see failure rates decline and companies more consistently adapt and thrive."

Uma descrição crua da realidade.

 "Executives Fail to Execute Strategy Because They’re Too Internally Focused":

"if you discover your pricing strategy isn’t working"

Alguns conselhos que fazem sentido:

"So, if your pricing isn’t working, what can you do about it? Well, you have several options, but here are a few to consider:
.
Raise your prices. Raising your prices allows you to work with fewer clients [Moi ici: Não percebo porque mais empresas não aprendem esta verdade. Recordar "Um euro de crescimento em preço..."] and gives you more time to deliver great results. What you do is valuable --  own that fact and know your worth.
Change your target audience. If you know that what you are offering provides value, but are still experiencing low conversion rates and/or hearing complaints, this could mean that you are barking up the wrong tree. It may be time to consider other markets or pivot in a new direction to find your ideal clients. Also, if you are spending time with people who don't see your value or complain about your pricing, it is definitely time for you to move on. Remember, if they can't see the value, it’s their problem, not yours.
.
Look at your systems. Recognizing when your current systems aren't working and investing in your processes, could be the time-saving boost that you need to get your cycle back into alignment and get your business back to growth.
.
In short, if you discover your pricing strategy isn’t working, it’s imperative to take an honest look at yourself, your business, and your current customers. This means pulling data, examining your metrics, and asking others their perspective about what’s working or not working."

Trechos retirados de "Pricing for Profitability: You Are in Control, Even If It Doesn’t Feel That Way Yet"

"That's quite a difference in perception"

Em "Para reflexão" respondia-se à pergunta "Are customers really as price sensitive as commonly believed?..." onde Andreas Hinterhuber defendia que os clientes valorizam outros factores muito mais do que o preço.

Entretanto, ontem o @pauloperes enviou-me esta imagem:

Quando o mundo muda há quem dê a volta

Há dias no postal "Acerca da experiência quando o mundo muda" podíamos ficar com a ideia de que a experiência do retalho físico pode ser um fardo demasiado pesado para triunfar no novo mundo.

Recordo um postal do início do mês sobre o que fazer quando a inovação tecnológica avança:

"We explore the implications of a real and common alternative to attempting the transformation required to embrace a new, dominant, technology—the choice to maintain focus on the old technology. In considering this choice, we distinguish between “racing” strategies, which attempt to fight off the rise of the new technology by extending the performance of the old technology, and “retreat” strategies, which attempt to accommodate the rise of the new technology by repositioning the old technology in the demand environment."

Agora em "How Independent Bookstores Haved Thrived in Spite of Amazon.com" encontro:

"When Amazon.com burst onto the nascent online retail scene in 1995, the future seemed bleak for brick-and-mortar independent bookstores—which already faced competition from superstores like Barnes & Noble and Borders. Indeed, between 1995 and 2000, the number of independent bookstores in the United States plummeted 43 percent, according to the American Booksellers Association (ABA), a nonprofit trade association dedicated to the promotion of independent bookstores.
.
But then a funny thing happened. While pressure from Amazon forced Borders out of business in 2011, indie bookstores staged an unexpected comeback. Between 2009 and 2015, the ABA reported a 35 percent growth in the number of independent booksellers, from 1,651 stores to 2,227.
...
Independent bookstores provide a story of hope by focusing on core values that include community, curation, and convening."

E agora ler isto:

"While all this was happening on a local level, there was important top-down work going on at the American Booksellers Association (ABA), a nonprofit trade association dedicated to the promotion of independent bookstores. The ABA served as a glue to bind likeminded players together—facilitating partnerships between bookstores and other local businesses, for example. The ABA also strengthened the collective identity of indie bookstores by helping its members share best practices, such as how to use social media to promote special events."

Para depois recordar "Gente de outra estirpe" e o poder da liderança nas associações.

Acerca da importância de estudar o ecossistema das partes interessadas

"Druker: We relied largely on discussions that we’d had with customers, with people in the industry that we worked in, the dairy industry in particular. We’d talk to nutritionists and to dairy producers, asking, “What are some of your biggest issues?” We mainly focused on the nutritionists, who are the people the dairy producer hires to help put together the ration to feed the cows. Our products go into those rations, so even though the dairy producers are buying the products, most of our efforts were focused on the nutritionists.
...
Druker: We’ve always known the end customer is the dairy producer, and ultimately the dairy cow, but yeah, we were basically getting our innovation information from a consultant that was being hired by the dairy producer. So yeah, I think absolutely part of our issue was we weren’t identifying the right people to speak to."

Mais um exemplo sobre a importância de estudar o ecossistema das partes interessadas e perceber quais são as relevantes e quais são os seus requisitos relevantes.

Isto faz-me lembrar uma conversa numa empresa há dias. Grande orgulho numa narrativa que o pessoal do marketing inventou para relacionar com uma inovação estética. Enquanto os ouvia pensava:

- O negócio é B2B. Será que os compradores vão ligar a essa narrativa?

Trechos retirados de "Jobs-to-be-Done Case Study: Arm & Hammer"

Transformar é possível (parte III)

Caro Nuno, na sequência da parte I, veja esta sequência em "How to Develop Strategy for Execution":

• 1. What is our vision?
• 2. What are our critical vulnerabilities?
• 3. What should we prioritize?

Repito o que escrevi:

"Apresentar um destino ambicioso, conversar abertamente sobre como é viver nesse destino, que resultados obtêm a empresa e os clientes, o que dizem os clientes da empresa, o que dizem os trabalhadores da empresa e do que fazem. Deixar a visão da terra onde corre leite e mel seduzi-los, deixar que contribuam para a descrição de como é essa terra, eles já lá estão, eles já lá vivem, o que vêem, o que fazem, o que sentem? Depois, capturar o gap, a lacuna entre o que ainda somos  e o que queremos ser no futuro desejado para construir o programa de transformação."

E recordo o acrónimo, "S-CRT":

• Pensamento sistémico aplicado a um SGA (I)
• Pensamento sistémico aplicado a um SGA (II)
• Pensamento sistémico aplicado a um SGA (III)
• Pensamento sistémico aplicado a um SGA (IV)
• Matéria-prima para converter estratégia em acção

O que se diz versus a agenda

"People might hear what you say, but they always remember what you do."

Como não recuar a Abril de 2006 e recordar:

"Qualquer subordinado, é o melhor estudioso do comportamento do seu chefe, não interessa o que o seu chefe diz, ou proclama; interessa o que o seu chefe faz, onde ocupa o tempo da sua agenda. Assim, o que a gestão de topo mede é uma poderosa mensagem para o resto da organização, o que se mede é o que interessa, é o que tem de ser atingido."

Trecho inicial retirado de "The boss goes first"

"overcommitting resources"

Há dias, no exame final deste curso apresentei este exemplo de não-conformidade:

"A empresa define objectivos que operacionaliza através da metodologia A3 e que são aprovados pela ADM. A empresa evidencia lacunas no controlo do estado de alguns desses projectos. Por exemplo, o projecto “Conquista do mercado Senegal” tinha uma data de conclusão prevista inicialmente para 28.02.2017. Estamos em Novembro de 2017, o projecto ainda está por concluir e a data prevista para a sua conclusão foi revista para 31.07.2017. (cláusula 6.3)"

Entretanto, neste artigo, "Executives Fail to Execute Strategy Because They’re Too Internally Focused":

"Diluting the focus of an organization by overcommitting resources institutionalizes mediocrity and cynicism. People feel set up to fail. Saying no is one of the greatest gifts an executive can give their organization. Too many leaders overestimate the capacity of their organizations under the ruse of “stretch goals” or “challenge assignments” to justify their denial of the organization’s true limitations. In one of the largest global retail companies I worked with, executional capacity was unusually constrained for an organization of its size and margins. I asked the CEO to estimate how many global initiatives (multicountry, more than $1 million in scope and budget) he thought were active at the enterprise level. He guessed 20 to 25. We did a comprehensive inventory for him — and stopped counting after we reached 147. Failure to make intentional, hard trade-offs when executing your strategy ensures that all efforts are likely to fall short of expected results." 

No exame pedia aos futuros auditores internos que ensaiassem uma proposta de acção correctiva. Engraçado que nenhum avançou com esta hipótese de causa: "overcommitting resources"

Locus de controlo

"A PwC survey published in 2015 revealed that 54% of CEOs worldwide were concerned about new competitors entering their market, and an equal percentage said they had either begun to compete in nontraditional markets themselves or considered doing so.
...
In our experience, when the business world encounters an intractable management problem, it’s a sign that business executives and scholars are getting something wrong — that there isn’t yet a satisfactory theory for what’s causing the problem, and under what circumstances it can be overcome. This is what has resulted in so much wasted time and effort in attempts at corporate renewal. And this confusion has spawned a welter of well-meaning but ultimately misguided advice, ranging from prescriptions to innovate only close to the core business to assertions about the type of leader who is able to pull off business model transformations, or the capabilities a business requires to achieve successful business model innovation."

Reflectir sobre estes números... e sobre o habitual choradinho sobre a necessidade de apoios para ultrapassar problemas estruturais, para diluir a necessidade de adaptação à nova realidade.


Trechos retirados de "The Hard Truth About Business Model Innovation"

Curiosidade do dia

Em 19.11.2017, "Aeroporto Humberto Delgado aguenta até 49 milhões de passageiros".

Em 22.11.2006, "Quase 43 milhões de passageiros em 2050":

"O futuro aeroporto da Ota, que será uma das principais obras lançadas por este Governo, tem um volume anual de passageiros de 42,9 milhões previsto para 2050. Este número situa-se situa-se um pouco acima dos 40 milhões de passageiros anuais que a nova infra-estrutura poderá vir a acolher, caso tenha obras adicionais numa segunda fase, isto de acordo com um plano director de referência que está neste momento em revisão."

Comentários para quê?

Só recordar as resmas de comentadores que diziam que a Portela estava esgotada.

Unintended consequences - para reflexão

"When Professor Bar-Yam revealed some of the findings from his research we were mind blown. He said that, today almost 50% of the US corn crop is used to produce ethanol, the substance that comprises 10% of gasoline. Evidence from his research found that policy in the US energy and environmental discussions lead to this shift in the use of biofuels for ethanol, but soon unintended consequences would arise from this policy change. Bar-Yam explained that corn is such an integral part of how we produce food, because it provides feed for animals to make meat products and dairy products and it is used in the production of sugar, among other uses, so for such a large portion of this crop to be reallocated for the production of ethanol, was very disruptive. In fact, it was disruptive on a global scale.
...
Professor Bar-Yam made the profound connection to events like the Arab Spring and the breakdown of order in several countries, including Syria, from food prices, a dramatic case of unintended consequences. He explained that civil unrest, revolutions, and refugees are all events which resulted from many civilians being unable to feed their families and feeling frustrated with unsympathetic governments. Bar-Yam stated, “we are watching this global cascade that goes from economic factors to food to riots and revolutions to refugees cascading around the world”."

Trechos retirados de "Understanding Unintended Consequences with Yaneer Bar-Yam"