Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta hermann simon. Mostrar todas as mensagens
Mostrar mensagens com a etiqueta hermann simon. Mostrar todas as mensagens

sábado, agosto 12, 2023

O destino do turismo

Assisti ontem à noite na CNN Portugal a uma parte da conversa com profissionais do turismo algarvio. Na parte da conversa que ouvi este tema surgiu "Algarve "descola da imagem de destino barato". Subida dos preços compensa menos dormidas":

"Decréscimo no número de dormidas no Algarve está a ser compensado pelo aumento dos preços. Redução foi registada essencialmente por parte dos portugueses, pressionados pela inflação e taxas de juros."

Não é impunemente que se sobem salários acima da produtividade, a consequência natural é aumentar os preços e/ou cortar as margens. É o destino!

É o mesmo destino das PMEs exportadoras nos sectores tradicionais. Produzem para fora porque os portugueses não têm poder de compra para as suportar.

Já ontem tinha apanhado este artigo "Açores: Falta de mão-de-obra deixa restaurantes a «meio-gás". Sinal gritante de que a procura (turistas) é superior à oferta. Se os açorianos querem restaurantes com qualidade de serviço têm de ter empregados qualificados, se não os há têm de aumentar os salários e para isso têm de aumentar os preços. Se as pessoas percebessem a assimetria do impacte da subidas de preços, optariam por ele mais vezes. Recordo o Evangelho do Valor, os clientes que se perdem com a subida de preços são mais do que compensados pelo que se ganha a mais com os que se mantêm.

Turistas mais satisfeitos, empregados mais satisfeitos, patrões mais satisfeitos e ambiente menos ameaçado.

Claro, o Evangelho do Valor só funciona se os Açores se focarem nas suas vantagens competitivas como destino turístico: baleias, líquenes (acho que ninguém liga a este potencial) e Atlântida.

segunda-feira, abril 18, 2022

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VIII)


Os utilizadores da ISO 9001 reconhecerão a cláusula 4.1 sobre a análise do contexto (com as questões internas e externas):


"In assessing the strategic situation, we recommend analyzing external competitive advantages and internal competencies in a similar way.
...
Strategy development usually starts not from scratch, but from point of departure that excludes certain strategy a options.
...
Where should strategy development begin in such a situation? With the market or the company's own competencies? It is often better to start with the question "What can we do?" or "What do we do better than our competitors?" [Moi ici: Talvez uma melhor pergunta seja "O que podemos fazer diferente dos outros?" Isto faz-me recordar e recuar a Outubro de 2015 e a este postal "Do concreto para o abstracto e não o contrário"] That's how we started in this case. Fig. 11.8 shows the matrix of internal competencies for the company's special market and the volume market, with competencies measured in relation to the strongest competitor.  
...
Not surprisingly, it transpired that the company performed extremely well in the special market. By contrast, its position was weak in the volume market, where business had previously only been done opportunistically. In all important competencies the competition was stronger. 

Manufacturing flexibility and financing were the only advantages, both of lesser importance.
The picture was similar with regard to the company's external market position. Fig. 11.9 shows how the customers perceived the company's performance attributes in relation to those of the strongest competitor. A position to the right of 100 signifies performance leadership, and to the left of 100 it means that a competitor is stronger.
In the special market, customers see the company as the clear performance leader. It has very pronounced competitive advantages in the elasticity of the propulsion units, product quality, and closeness to customer. The company fails to beat the competition in price and operating costs only. However, this is not a serious problem in view of the company's superior performance in several important attributes and the relative unimportance of operating costs.

As we have seen, both markets were very attractive to the company, which did not want and could not afford to abandon the special market despite the cuts in defense budgets. What strategic options did the company have?

1. Continue to serve the special market and defend its position there. This basically represents the continuation of the previously successful hidden champion strategy. The risk is considerable that the market remains small or even shrinks. Cost disadvantages could get worse as a result. In addition, some customers in the special market may in the future buy more standard products that were originally intended for the volume market.

2. Develop the competitive competencies required for success in the volume market. Most importantly, this means developing simpler, less sophisticated propulsion units and manufacturing them at cheaper locations. This option was discussed at length, but it ultimately proved to be too time-consuming and risky. The management was unsure whether these competencies could successfully be developed within an acceptable timeframe.

3. Acquire a company that is strong in the volume market but weak in the special market.
Option 3 was chosen. Three candidates were considered in depth, and the most suitable one was taken over in stages."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.




domingo, abril 10, 2022

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VII)


Os hidden champions e a inovação:
"Innovations must either improve the value to customer or provide an existing value at a lower cost. Ideally, they do both. The word "innovation" is primarily associated with technology and new products, and technology is in fact the key factor behind most hidden champions' innovativeness." 
Os hidden champions e a concorrência:
"The hidden champions operate predominantly in oligopolistic markets, and even on a global scale, they face only a limited number of competitors. However, competition is fierce. Their strategy is oriented to superior performance, not low prices. Their long-standing competitive advantage of product quality continues to form the core of their market leadership. They also offer excellent service. More recently, they have developed superior positions in softer parameters such as advice and systems integration. As these parameters are based on internal competencies, they are difficult to imitate and therefore sustainable.
...
Competition between established providers is very intense, but relates primarily to performance and innovation, less to price;
...
Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon.

segunda-feira, abril 04, 2022

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte VI)

Parte I, parte IIparte IIIparte IV e parte V 

"The hidden champions' customers are very demanding and have complex requirements. Fig. 5.3 shows the importance of 13 performance attributes.

...

...

The findings indicate that the hidden champions do not have to compete primarily through price. Their customers are far more interested in quality and economy."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon. 

sábado, abril 02, 2022

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte V)

Parte I, parte IIparte III e parte IV.


Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":

  • focalização em clientes-alvo de um nicho e procurá-los em todo o mundo: globalização
  • desenvolvimento de fortes relações com os clientes

"How does a company ascend to world market leadership? Certainly not by staying at home and waiting for customers to call on it. Instead, the hidden champions venture into the world and offer their products wherever their customers are. This process of globalization typically takes generations and requires unending stamina. In the preceding chapter we learned that the hidden champions operate in narrowly defined and therefore relatively small markets. To expand these markets, the hidden champions have chosen globalization as the second pillar of their strategy besides focus. This means that they are narrow in the substance of their business and wide in the regional dimension. The hidden champions' world markets are far larger than their respective home markets.

...

The consequences of narrow market definition are even more pronounced for supernichists and market owners. Even in large countries, niche markets can become tiny. The hidden champions would be doomed to remain small without the possibility of regional expansion. Consequently, globalization is the second pillar of their strategy.

...

The narrow market definition based on application, technology, target group or other criteria is coupled with a wide market definition regarding the regional dimension. These are the two major pillars of the hidden champion strategy: specialization in product and know-how combined with breadth in the regional market coverage, normally on a global scale.

...

The hidden champions have extremely close relationships with their customers, due to the complexity of the products and services they offer. Three-quarters of the companies practice direct sales. Five times as many employees in hidden champion companies have regular contact with customers than in large corporations, leading to the pronounced closeness.

...

Many hidden champions cooperate very closely with their top customers and benefit from them as drivers of performance and as references. The customers' demands are aimed primarily at high performance rather than at low prices. The products and services supplied by the hidden champions offer not only top quality with high-tech content, but also increasingly comprehensive advice and systems solutions. Prices are clearly above market level.

...

The hidden champions' relationships with their customers are close and interactive. The main reason is that, in general, they offer complex product and service programs, often even systems solutions. Such programs cannot be sold off the peg, but require detailed consultation processes."

Trechos retirados de "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon. 

segunda-feira, março 28, 2022

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte IV)

Parte I e parte II e parte III.

Mais um conjunto de lições a reter dos "hidden champions":

  • Criam os seus mercados através da abordagem e definição do mesmo
  • Trabalham constantemente para manter o product/serviço à frente
  • Usam a escassez como forma de controlar o preço e não tornar o mercado atraente para os gigantes
  • Evitam a diversificação para não se distrairem do que é essencial para o seu mercado.
"Market domination strategies adopted by supernichists or market owners are not easily imitated by normal companies, just as it makes no sense for an average violinist to compete with Anne-Sophie Mutter or Itzhak Perlman. The simplest way for a company to own a market is to create that market itself. Ideally, such a market does not yet exist and is created or defined by the new product. In addition, the uniqueness of the product must be sustainable. Imitation or the establishment of similar markets must be prevented at all costs. The product's outstanding position must be continually renewed and defended over time. Various instruments can be used to maintain a product's uniqueness:
  • Patent protection, 
  • powerful trademark or logo, 
  • intensive relationships and familiarity with customers, and 
  • artistic designs with frequent updates.
...

However, scarcity also means that the supernichists or market owners voluntarily refrain from exploiting their full growth potential. Exclusivity can only be maintained if volume expansion is controlled.

Market owners teach us valuable lessons in relationship marketing. They have been spoiling their loyal customers for years, initiating clubs and collectors' movements long before these concepts were discovered by the marketing literature.
...
Those who enjoy sustained success are wise enough to stay specialized and secretive, and to keep their markets small. These can be important lessons for other companies.
Superniches limit growth opportunities and make the deliberate decision not to grow
...
It is evident that the strong focus of the hidden champions harbors risks. After all, it means putting "all the eggs in one basket." Are the hidden champions too highly dependent on their narrow markets, just a handful of customers, and the business cycles they cannot compensate elsewhere?
...
The hidden champions are committed to their markets for better or worse. The risks of this dependence should not be underestimated. Whether specialization goes too far can only be determined on an individual basis. Focus is simultaneously the foundation of strength and a source of risk.
There are essentially three types of risks:
  • Dependence on one market ("all eggs in one basket").
  • An upscale market niche can be attacked by standard products (risk of losing the premium position).
  • The niche's small market volume or high costs may erode customer acceptance and/or price competitiveness.
...
The hidden champions avoid the risk of distraction from their core business, a mistake that is frequently fatal for diversified companies. The hidden champions rarely sell off businesses. Focus on the core business and the risks associated with it force the hidden champions to keep a close eye on their market and to defend their position by swift reactions to changes in customer needs or to new technological developments. The dependence on their market makes them ferocious defenders and great innovators."

quarta-feira, março 23, 2022

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte II)

Foco, foco, foco... 

"How Hidden Champions Define Their Markets
There are numerous ways to define a market or a business. The oldest version is based on the product: "We operate in the market for dishwashers." This product-oriented definition was heavily criticized by Theodore Levitt in the groundbreaking article Marketing Myopia in 1960. Levitt's criticism of the American railroad companies has become famous. According to Levitt, their definition of their market as "railroads" and not *passenger transport" meant that they overlooked the emerging competition from airlines.
...
The market definition demanded by Levitt is based on customer needs or application.[Moi ici: Recordo logo Think “outcome before output”] "We make clean dishes our business" would be a needs-oriented definition for a dishwasher manufacturer. In addition, markets can be determined by reference to customer or target groups. Staying with our example, this would be: "We supply hotels and restaurants with dishwashing systems.' For example, the CEO of Brother, Seichi Hirata, made the following precise market definition according to target group, "Our main target group is the segment of small offices, home offices and small and midsize companies. We know this business very well and focus on it.

"Our competitors cover all segments. We don't." [Moi ici: É preciso ter muita coragem para não seguir atrás dos concorrentes] Brother achieved market leadership with its office machines in this segment as a result of the narrow market definition.
...
With their market definitions the hidden champions of the twenty-first century generally show a very modern understanding of the market. Customer needs and target groups clearly top the list
...
The hidden champions have grown beyond the narrow boundaries of their regions of origin. They view the world as their market, not their country or region. [Moi ici: Recordar "Nichos, co-criação e intimidade à escala" com a lição alemão e o fim da geografia]
...
If we asked a hidden champion selected at random to state the key to its success, the most likely answer would be "We specialize in ...""


"Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de Hermann Simon 

sexta-feira, março 18, 2022

Lições de Hidden Champions (parte I)


Por volta de 2007/2008 li a primeira edição do livro "Hidden Champions" de Hermann Simon. Agora comprei a versão mais recente, "Hidden Champions of the Twenty-First Century Success Strategies of Unknown World Market Leaders" de 2009.

"How do the hidden champions deal with downturns and crises? The majority seems to actually profit from difficult conditions. Half of the respondents took the view that they survive downturns better than their industry as a whole. Most respondents said that this was definitely true of past downturns and that they expect no changes in this respect. Market shares are newly distributed in difficult market phases, not in favorable economic times. When times get tough, the weaker competitors tend to buckle under pressure. This in turn provides the stronger contenders with the opportunity to expand their market position. [Moi ici: Isto faz-me recordar a minha velha metáfora das salamandras, e que é o excesso dos tempos bons que mata durante os tempos maus] This model is similar to that propounded by the evolutionist Stephen Jay Gould. In his so-called "punctuated equilibria" theory, he asserted that evolution is not a continuous process, but rather occurs in leaps. There are long periods with minimal mutations followed by brief phases with abrupt changes. This hypothesis could well apply to markets in general and to the hidden champions in particular.
...
"Sustained success is largely a matter of focusing regularly on the right things and making a lot of uncelebrated improvements every day."
...
Every firm should be open to learn from successful companies. Until now, this process has mainly been a one-way street running from the large, well-known corporations down to the midsize and smaller firms. About 90% of all case studies deal with large corporations. In other words, only the big companies purportedly have something to teach. It is time to reverse this learning process. As we will see In this book, even large corporations have a lot to learn from the hidden champions." [Moi ici: Muitas vezes aqui no blogue escrevi sobre isto. Gerentes de PMEs lêem o que as empresas grandes fazem, porque só elas têm eco nos media, e pensam que o que serve para as grandes (será que serve?), também serve para as suas PMEs. O que quase sempre dá asneira. Precisam de estratégias diferentes pois servem clientes diferentes]

sexta-feira, novembro 12, 2021

Mea culpa (parte II)

Escrevo regularmente neste blogue há mais de 15 anos. Às vezes sinto algum orgulho por causa das previsões em que acerto (por exemplo RaporalÓrbita ou Gráfica Mirandela), e por raramente ter escrito algo do qual me tenha de retratar.

No entanto, hoje gostaria de pôr preto no branco algo que quase soa a retratação. Embora seja mais o resultado de eu próprio ter cometido o pecado do jogador de bilhar amador que tantas vezes refiro aqui.

Herman Simon costuma escrever sobre a falsa percepção que o público tem acerca do lucro das empresas:
"What does the average citizen think about profit? 
...
We’ll start with what people think in the United States, where a survey posed the following question to a representative sample: “Just a rough guess, what percent profit on each dollar of sales do you think the average company makes after taxes?” The average response was 36%! This is very consistent with research that advertising guru David Ogilvy cites in his book Ogilvy on Advertising: “the average shopper thought Sears Roebuck made a profit of 37% on sales.” Sears’ true profit at that time was less than 5%.
Responses to similar questions in nine different polls between 1971 and 1987 ranged from 28 to 37% and averaged 31.6%. What is the truth? The actual average after-tax profit margins of US companies over the long term is around 5%. In other words, the respondents overestimated the level of corporate profits by a factor of six. We found very similar perceptions in a study conducted in Italy in 2019. Respondents there estimated net profit margins to be 38%.
People in Germany have also responded to surveys with similar questions. The answers varied between 15.75 and 24.15% with 20% on average. In Austria, a comparable number was 17%.7 In other countries we could not find similar surveys."(fonte 1)
As empresas ganham menos dinheiro do que as pessoas suspeitam. Então em Portugal, país de zombies e de apoio à manutenção de postos de trabalho com um sistema Ponzi encavalitado em empréstimos bancários, é comum justificar os baixos salários com a avareza dos patrões. Contudo, o problema é outro, a falta de concorrência imperfeita, a falta de inovação, a falta de diferenciação real, que leva a demasiada concorrência perfeita.

Ao longo dos anos o meu erro de raciocínio tem sido o de me ficar pelo pensamento de primeira ordem. Ainda ontem publiquei esta figura:
Enquanto outros falam de produtividade como condição para se ser competitivo, há muito que descobri que produtividade e competitividade são duas realidades distintas. 

Como trabalho com empresas concretas o meu foco é na sua competitividade e a coisa até funciona. Recordo os protestos contra os "ateliês" quando lembro a necessidade de preparar a Fase IV.

O que confesso nunca me passou pela cabeça foram as consequências de um mundo de empresas competitivas, mas não produtivas. Um mundo com salários cada vez mais estagnados não porque os patrões não queiram pagar mais, mas porque o negócio não dá mais. 
Um empresário, um patrão, não tem como responsabilidade mudar o mundo, tem como responsabilidade liderar a sua empresa. Por outro lado, o desafio de a manter à tona é tão grande que raramente encontra tempo para pensar no depois de amanhã, simplesmente reage, o quotidiano é que assume o comando. É cada vez mais difícil encontrar pessoas para trabalhar a receber os salários que pode pagar? Em vez da subida na escala de valor, temos a race to the bottom: Arranjar quem o faça no Brasil, ou na Moldávia ... ou uma prestação de serviços à la Odemira.

Por isso, os portugueses emigram

O que leio em "How Rich Countries Got Rich and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor" de Erik S. Reinert.
“Once a considerable gap in real wages has been created, the world market will automatically assign economic activities that are technological dead-ends - and therefore only require unqualified labour, for example, to produce baseballs - to low wage countries. [Moi ici: Daí as "vitórias de Pirro" sobre a Lituânia e a Polónia]
...
The competitiveness of a country is, according to OECD definition, to raise real wages while still remaining competitive on the world markets. In most of the Third World today this situation is turned upside down: wages are lowered in order to be internationally competitive. [Moi ici: Como não recordar a reportagem dos empresários do turismo algarvio que querem ir buscar filipinos e cabo verdianos porque supostamente os portugueses não querem trabalhar]) 
[Moi ici: BTW! Recordam-se da caridadezinha?]
Education is increasingly regarded as the key to expanding wealth in the Third World. In countries like Haiti, which specialize in non-mechanized production - in technological dead-ends - raising the level of education of the population will not help to increase the level of wealth in the population. In such countries the demand for educated personnel is minimal. Education is more likely to increase the propensity to emigrate. A strategy based on education succeeds only when combined with an industrial policy that also provides work for educated people, as happened in East Asia.
...
By emphasizing the importance of education without simultaneously allowing for an industrial policy that creates demand for educated people - as Europe has over the last 500 years - the Washington institutions are just adding to the financial burdens of poor countries by letting them finance the education of people who will eventually find employment only in the wealthy countries. An education policy must be matched by an industrial policy that creates demand for the graduates.[Moi ici: Entram aqui os dinheiros da Europa. Como appetizers recordo estas duas breves reflexões acerca da entrada massiça de dinheiro para investir, aqui e aqui]
...
Theory development led to what Schumpeter calls `the pedestrian view that capital per se propels the capitalist engine'. The West started thinking that by sending capital to a poor country with no entrepreneurship, no governmental policy and no industrial system, they could produce capitalism. The consequence is that today we virtually stuff money down the throat of countries with no productive structure - where this money could be profitably invested - because they are not allowed to follow the industrial strategy all the presently rich countries followed. Developing countries are given loans they cannot profitably utilize, and the whole process of development financing becomes akin to that of chain letters and pyramid games. Sooner or later the system breaks down, and the ones who designed it, standing close enough to the door when everybody rushes out, are able to make good financial profits, while the poor countries themselves are the losers. This is part of the mechanism that often creates larger flows of funds from the poor to the rich countries than the other way around, one of Gunnar Myrdal's `perverse backwashes' of poverty."[Moi ici: Reinert propõe o proteccionismo, mas o proteccionismo para um país na UE não é possível. Como resolver a situação sem sair da UE? Seguir a receita irlandesa, não confiar em irlandeses e atrair investimento estrangeiro apostado na concorrência imperfeita, não na extracção venenosa na agricultura e recursos naturais]
Saúdo Rui Tavares com o artigo "Portugal está preso numa armadilha de salários baixos" por lhe dar a importância que deve merecer. Muito certamente não concordarei com a receita de Rui Tavares para o solucionar, mas decididamente é o tema de fundo.

O mesmo tema, tratado por Eugénio Rosa, desvia-se para os salários da função pública. Como é que a função pública não pode deixar de ter salários estagnados se a riqueza criada está estagnada e há cada vez mais gente na função pública ou a depender do orçamento do Estado? Reinert escreve sobre isto quando refere que um barbeiro na Suécia é tão produtivo, em quantidade de trabalho, quanto um barbeiro em Portugal, mas o salário do barbeiro sueco é muito superior ao do barbeiro português, por causa da riqueza criada pelo resto da sociedade. Tal como um motorista de autocarro português que emigra e começa a trabalhar na Suiça como motorista de autocarro...

Fonte 1 - Trechos retirados de “No Company Ever Went Broke Turning a Profit” de Hermann Simon.

quarta-feira, agosto 25, 2021

"sales rank among the less efficient and less effective functions in most companies"

"More Effective Sales Activities
My decades-long experience tells me that sales rank among the less efficient and less effective functions in most companies. Perhaps that is inevitable because there is a participant in the sales process that cannot be controlled like a machine: the customer. Sales efficiency means that the best possible sales result is achieved with the available resources. Effectiveness means that sales do the right thing. The “right thing” is ultimately the achievement of profit, which depends on sales volume and price. Sales also influence costs, directly through its own expenses and also through obligations that sales agree to in the negotiations.
In our projects, we see over and over that sales teams have many levers they can pull to achieve higher volumes and generate higher profits. That long list starts with increasing the effective time that the salespeople spend with customers. That often accounts only for 15% of their time. The list also includes administrative tasks that are often done by hand instead of with modern information technology. Another bottleneck is improving the skills of the salespeople so that they can sell on the basis of value communication, not through price concessions. Many companies, if not most, incentivize their sales teams to achieve revenue, not profit. When this incentive structure applies to teams with price negotiation authority, one can assume that the team will maximize revenue, and probably sales volume, but will almost certainly not achieve the highest possible profit.
Profit-oriented leadership of the sales function brings complex challenges with respect to talent selection, training, motivation, incentives, and organization. In general, sales departments have considerable latent profit potential, but admittedly it is difficult to tap that potential quickly."

Trecho retirado de “No Company Ever Went Broke Turning a Profit” de Hermann Simon.

domingo, agosto 22, 2021

Atenção ao preço

Primeiro, recordar os números de Marn e Rosiello sobre o impacte do preço no lucro:


Depois ler estes trechos retirados de “No Company Ever Went Broke Turning a Profit” de Hermann Simon:

"Given its extraordinary role as a profit driver and its unusual effectiveness as a marketing instrument, one would expect that entrepreneurs and top managers pay a lot of attention to price. But in practice, that is often not the case. Instead, cost is what preoccupies managers’ thinking and consumes most of their energy. Volume—driven by marketing instruments such as advertising and sales—also tends to attract more management attention than price. Many companies do not treat price with the professionalism and seriousness it warrants.

...

A price increase of 1% is relatively small, but its effects on profits vary dramatically.

...

In one project for an industrial supplier we recommended an “anti-discount” incentive. When salespeople granted smaller discounts, their commissions would rise. The new system worked quickly and effectively. Within three months, the average discount granted by salespeople declined by 2% points, without any losses in volume or customers. That is the equivalent of a price increase of 2% with no volume decline. The resulting profit increase was 16%, which corresponds to a profit elasticity of price of 8. In absolute terms the profit increase was more than $100 million. Price is an extremely effective profit driver. That makes optimizing price worthwhile."

segunda-feira, agosto 02, 2021

Para reflexão

"The era of export is coming to an end. Instead of making and sending goods, it becomes a trend to send money and data to make and supply goods locally. It means that the world is ending in a world where labor is cheap and raw materials are cheap.

The world economy in the era of the so-called 'post-corona' as predicted by German business thinker Dr. Hermann Simon.

...

"The era of hyper-globalization, when exports amounted to twice the GDP (gross domestic product), is over, and we are now entering the era of de-globalization. “As local production increases through FDI (foreign direct investment), exports will decrease, and the restructuring of the global economy will accelerate accordingly,” he said.

...

“Companies have learned how easily global supply chains can collapse (due to a pandemic). An alternative is to set up a production base overseas where raw materials and parts can be directly supplied, and operate it through an independent local corporation. In other words, instead of investing in the country where the head office is located, we invest overseas where there are demand sources or raw materials. 

...

In the past, it was not easy to set up a high-tech factory abroad. However, advances in advanced technologies such as 5G (5th generation mobile communication) and 3D (3D printer) are making this possible. “It is now possible to send data in real time to make things (with 3D printers) in factories on the other side of the world. There is no longer any need for products to be moved between countries. This means that the global supply chain (GVC) can be reorganized to be the center of the data flow (rather than the flow of parts and raw materials).”


Dr. Simon said, "These days, quite a few CEOs (CEOs) say that it is 'like a miracle' when they see companies running well without business trips or face-to-face meetings." This experience is not just a surprise, but leads to a 'sympathy' between the business owners and professional managers that 'it is okay to give more autonomy to overseas branches and manpower'. “It doesn't matter where the headquarters is anymore. Now, the important thing for CEOs of global companies is to find a region that is optimized for 'the industry we are good at'."

Trechos retirados de "“The era of living on exports will end after Corona,” a world-class business scholar warns

sexta-feira, julho 30, 2021

A caminho de um futuro melhor

A propósito dos Campeões Escondidos: 

"Objetivos Ambiciosos

Los objetivos estratégicos de los Hidden Champions están orientados al crecimiento y al liderazgo en el mercado. ... La búsqueda del liderazgo en el mercado no se refiere solamente a la cuota de mercado, sino también con la ambición de ser el mejor en el mercado.

...

Focalización y Profundización

Concentración es una de las condiciones irrenunciables para tener prestaciones punteras. Solamente con focalización se convierte en una clase mundial. [2015] ... A lo que se añade la preferencia por hacerlo uno mismo o, interpretado de otra manera, la inclinación contra el alabado outsourcing. [2013] Profundización constituye uno de los secretos más importantes de los Hidden Champions. La singularidad y la superioridad solamente se pueden lograr internamente, no se compra en el mercado.

...

Globalización

La focalización hace pequeño un mercado. Y ¿cómo consigue hacer grande su mercado? ¿Cómo se logra el crecimiento? En la medida en la que se internacionaliza. Los líderes mundiales o europeos de los mercados no se quedan en el mercado local, sino que sale al mundo. [2012] Los Hidden Champions no lo realizan mediante agentes comerciales importadores o representantes de ventas, sino que crean sus propias filiales en los mercados extranjeros. De esta manera pueden controlar también los servicios post-venta y logran alcanzar a una elevada proximidad al cliente.

Proximidad al cliente

La proximidad al cliente es una ventaja natural de las empresas medianas. Casi el 90% de todas las empresas preguntadas señalan su proximidad al cliente como su punto fuerte.

...

Innovación

Líder en mercados se hace y se permanece no precisamente mediante la imitación, sino por la innovación.

...

Alta utilidad para el cliente.

Las estrategias de los Hidden Champions están orientadas al valor y no al precio. [2007, 2013] Ofrecen alta utilidad para el cliente. Muchas de los Hidden Champions son ya en sus propios mercados líderes cualitativos."

Qualquer empresa pode enveredar por esta via. Não se tornará num campeão escondido de imediato, mas iniciará um ciclo de melhoria superior ao ritmo de mudança do exterior. Impressionante como tudo bate certo com o que temos escrito por aqui nos últimos 17 anos.

Trechos retirados de "HIDDEN CHAMPIONS-MUY IMPORTANTE PARA LAS REGIONES"

quarta-feira, julho 07, 2021

"a highly centralized country will not create a Mittelstand"

Em Maio de 2008, pela primeira vez, escrevi aqui no blogue sobre os Hidden Champions:

"Estes campeões esquecidos e muitas vezes mal vistos:

"Unfortunately, across Europe there remains a post-Socialist reflex to quash entrepreneurial spirit rather than to praise the contribution that energetic businesspeople make to a nation's growth and employment. This attitude is changing, but slowly. Hidden champions show how important it is for Europe, which too often perpetuates mediocrity, to instead celebrate and support excellence."
.
Isto é o que precisamos "Hidden Champions The little-known European companies that are conquering the world " mais do que gigantes sanguessugas, nacionais ou multinacionais, que à custa do negócio do preço e das relações privilegiadas com o poder vão perpetuando um modelo de desenvolvimento que vai fazendo o país definhar."

Ontem ao ler “A Remarkable Journey from Farmhouse to the Global Stage” de Hermann Simon encontrei esta passagem sobre os Hidden Champions:

"France is a special case with respect to Hidden Champions. The French took a very close look at the German model in the wake of the Great Recession of 2008–2009. Wanting to understand the reasons behind Germany’s success and learn from them, they homed in on the Mittelstand. That led to my being invited to give numerous talks on Hidden Champions, including one to the French Senate. I introduced the Hidden Champions concept and posited two provocative theses. First, a highly centralized country will not create a Mittelstand. Second, if a country places extremely high value on elite education, it can hinder the development of a Mittelstand.
...
In my opinion, both of these hypotheses apply to France. The country’s high level of centralization means that Paris attracts all the talent. The recipe for the dream career in France is a degree from an elite school, followed by a job in a large company or a ministry. Hardly anyone is interested in working in a rural area or for a small- or medium-sized business, which by definition has little name recognition and status in a centralized society."
A propósito de Paris ... e que tal Lesboa?




sábado, julho 03, 2021

Are you a Marxianist?

"Are you a Marxist? You are likely to answer “no.” So my next question is: “OK, if you are not a Marxist, why is your pricing Marxian?” While Marx’s labor theory is totally rejected today, it has survived in pricing. What a strange phenomenon! Let me explain why that is the case.

The most important contribution of Karl Marx (1818–1883) was his labor theory of value, according to which only labor creates value. He writes that the “prices of goods are determined by wages” (Marx 1951). Marx allows for differences in productivity and qualifications of workers, and thus for different values per unit of time. But the core of his theory is that only labor creates value. Consequently, labor costs are the sole base for price calculations.

In modern terminology, we call this method “cost-plus pricing.” Based on my decades of observations around the world, I would claim that 80% of all prices in today’s markets are primarily determined on the basis of costs. And all costs are labor costs. Lawyers, consultants, and most other service providers charge prices for their time (hourly, daily, monthly rates). If an automotive company buys parts from a supplier, these parts from a supplier, these parts carry labor costs up the value chain."

Leio isto em “A Remarkable Journey from Farmhouse to the Global Stage” de Hermann Simon. É uma pena Hermann Simon ser tão mal conhecido em Portugal... um país pequeno como Portugal, parte do continente europeu e aspirante a um nível de vida centro europeu não pode confiar no marxianismo, não pode seguir a receita dos muggles, tem de seguir o método alemão. Não a baboseira que nos contam sobre as BMW, ou VW, isso não está no nosso ADN, nem temos capital para isso. Isso é para futuros governos inteligentes (eheheheh um oxímoro em Portugal, juntar as duas palavras. Em Portugal é mais, infelizmente, "governo de espertos") que apliquem a receita irlandesa para atrair capital estrangeiro que estabelecerá as multinacionais. 

O método alemão de que falo é o que Hermann Simon caracterizou como o dos campeões escondidos, o seguido pelas Mittelstand. Empresas grandes a competir com chineses dá ... asneira.

Recordar "Somos todos alemães" ou "We are not cost cutters" ou "Somos todos alemães (parte X)". E para quem tem horror a escolher clientes ou segmentos do mercado recomendo "Há que escolher! (parte III)"

quinta-feira, julho 01, 2021

" never run a business in which you have no influence on the prices you charge"

"In every market my father went to, we were “price takers.” [Moi ici: Eram agricultores] We had to accept the set price, whether we liked it or not. It was an extremely uncomfortable position. As anyone with a similar experience will attest, money is tight on a farm. These sales were our only source of income.

I absorbed all these impressions as a boy and I must admit, I did not like them. Decades later, I would explain in interviews that these lessons taught me something that has guided me in running my own business and helping others improve theirs: never run a business in which you have no influence on the prices you charge."


 Trecho retirado de "A Remarkable Journey from Farmhouse to the Global Stage" de Hermann Simon

sábado, março 06, 2021

Lucro? E para quê e para quem?

O amigo João mandou-me este vídeo por Messenger.


Comentar vídeos destes numa rede social é meio caminho andado para equívocos e extremar de posições. Meia dúzia de caracteres de cada vez não chegam. Assim, aqui vai via blog uma tentativa de expressar a minha opinião.

1º O lucro é vital para as empresas. As empresas têm de ter lucro, ponto!!!
Não é só no Portugal socialista que esta ideia tem de ser defendida e proclamada. Até na Alemanha é preciso fazê-lo. Daí que está agora a fazer um ano que um dos meus heróis, Hermann Simon, publicou um livro com o título "Am Gewinn ist noch keine Firma kaputtgegangen". Já li algures Hermann Simon, numa entrevista, referir que o título tem a ver com um ditado alemão. Algo como, nunca ninguém ficou pobre por ganhar dinheiro.

Quantas vezes, desde 30 de Julho de 2006,  já escrevi aqui no blogue aquela expressão?

"Volume is Vanity
Profit is Sanity"

Por exemplo, em Portugal os economistas estão sempre a falar na necessidade imperiosa das empresas crescerem, para serem mais rentáveis, para serem mais produtivas. Hermann Simon diz-nos:
"In Germany people believe that the net profit margin, after all costs and all taxes, is 23%. The real margin over many years is 3.4%. Similar in the US. The believe is 32% net profit margin, the reality is 4.9%. The record holders are the Italians. They think that the margin is 38%, the reality is 5%. There are two messages: Real net margins are 5% or less, typically. Furthermore, people overestimate profit margins by 600%. That’s unbelievable."
E:
"large corporations are not more profitable. The median of the net margin of the Fortune Global 500 is 4.49%. This tells us that half of these giants earn less than 4.5%. Most likely they don’t make an economic profit, meaning that they don’t recover their cost of capital. That’s the case for half of the Fortune Global 500. The public perception is misguided by a few profit stars.
...
profit always depends on the combination of three profit drivers and there are only those three: price, volume and cost." 

Sem lucro as empresas são como Portugal, um país sem autonomia, sempre a passear-se pelos areópagos internacionais como pedinte profissional.

2º Para que servem os lucros?

A maior parte das pessoas pensa que o lucro é importante para remunerar os accionistas. Sim, o lucro serve para remunerar o risco de quem empreende. No entanto, as empresas que se ficam por isso não têm futuro.

Final dos anos 80(?) estava eu em Valongo, numa sala à espera de uma entrevista de emprego na UTA e lia um dos livros de Peter Drucker. Não recordo o título, tenho e li tudo o que encontrei dele, mas nesse livro Drucker apresentou-me a mim, engenheiro com formação básica de gestão, mais um austríaco que eu não conhecia: Joseph Schumpeter.

Com Schumpeter aprendi que o lucro é fundamental para pagar os custos do futuro! Ainda esta semana sorri e recordei esta ideia. A trabalhar numa empresa, estivemos a sistematizar a metodologia de qualificação inicial de subcontratados. A empresa referia-se a eles como fábricas, contudo também recorrem a outros subcontratados que não podem ser apelidados de "fábricas". Então, apostarm no termo "unidade de produção". Gente mais nova não tem essa memória, mas eu tinha mais de 10 anos quando foi o 25 de Abril de 1974, na minha cabeça apareceu logo a expressão "unidade colectiva de produção". Tinham um pecado original, focavam-se na gratificação imediata e nunca acumulavam capital para pagar os custos do futuro. Recordar que este Schumpeter é o mesmo que nos apresentou a destruição criativa. Quem não quer ser destruído tem de investir no seu futuro.

3º Como se obtém o lucro?

Associada a esta pergunta está uma outra: A parte do lucro que se distribui, por quem sem se distribui? Pelos accionistas ou pelos stakeholders (partes interessadas)?

E aqui, no vídeo, refere-se a ideia do Milton Friedman sobre a importância do lucro e da sua maximização. Esta ideia de Milton Friedman expressa em “The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits” está ultrapassada. Ao longo dos anos que escrevo sobre isso, mas sem criticar Friedman. Há muitos anos que uso esta imagem aqui no blogue:

A economia é muito diferente da física ou da química. Acho que Friedman escrevia para um tempo que já passou. Recordo que a Economia não é como a Física newtoniana ou galilaica.

Começo o meu livro:
Com uma explicação sobre a grande revolução ocorrida no mundo ocidental algures na década de 70 do século passado. Por essa altura, a oferta passou a ser maior que a procura. E quando isso aconteceu... foi mesmo uma revolução.

Quando a procura é maior do que a oferta quem manda é quem produz. Quem produz pode concentrar-se em ser eficiente porque tudo o que "vomitar" tem saída garantida.

Quando a procura é menor do que a oferta quem manda é quem compra. Então, não basta produzir! Há que orquestrar um ecossistema de parcerias, de partes interessadas, para que todos ganhem:
"Quanto mais crescer o interesse e vantagem em trabalhar a nível de ecossistema, em que os ecossistemas que ganham são os que maximizam o valor a ser criado pelo conjunto dos actores, e não por um em particular."

Acredito que Friedman hoje pensaria de forma diferente. Hoje, o lucro tem de ser visto como um objectivo obliquo. É tão absurdo, aos meus olhos, eleger o lucro como um objectivo directo como ouvir um político eleger como objectivo directo a redução do desemprego. Dá sempre asneira.

Como objectivos oblíquos, o lucro ou a redução do desemprego são consequências de outras coisas. O lucro é uma consequência de clientes que se ganham, clientes satisfeitos e de clientes que continuam a trabalhar connosco. 

Ganhar, satisfazer e desenvolver a relação com os clientes é fruto de se trabalhar bem a montante: E quem trabalha?

"Cada vez mais, o sucesso de uma empresa exige que se tenha em consideração as necessidades e expectativas de outras partes interessadas que podem contribuir para a sustentabilidade do desempenho. É claro que os clientes são uma parte interessada, afinal são eles que nos dão o dinheiro com que pagamos as contas, preparamos o futuro e suportamos a impostagem. No entanto, podemos identificar outras partes interessadas:" 


O conceito de ecossistema é-me muito caro, uso-o na consultoria desde 2004, não porque li, mas porque emergiu no meu trabalho.
Primeiro postal sobre o tema em Março de 2007

Afinal sou um arquitecto de paisagens competitivas.

Portanto, concluo que o vídeo acaba por ter uma mensagem demasiado simplificada, talvez mesmo simplista.




sábado, outubro 03, 2020

Lucro vs treta

Esta semana mais uma vítima, não da COVID, mas de um modelo de negócio que na minha opinião (conservador financeiro nos negócios) nunca teria sucesso: "Undandy fica descalça. Uma das jovens promessas da indústria portuguesa de calçado entra em PER" (li algures que tem mais de 6 milhões de euros de dívida e que o principal credor é o Facebook).

Desde 2006 ou 2007 que escrevo por aqui: Profit is Sanity, Volume is Vanity

Neste postal de 2007 refiro a minha compra de “Manage for Profit, Not for Market Share: A Guide to Greater Profits in Highly Contested Markets” de Hermann Simon, Frank Bilstein e Frank Luby ... livros que nos marcam e nos moldam.

Entretanto, ontem à noite li, de Hermann Simon, "Le profit ne doit pas devenir un gros mot!". Malheureusement, ici au Portugal, cela s'est passé il y a longtemps.

Portugal é o país em que só se fala de distribuição, raramente se fala em criação de riqueza. Como não se cria riqueza suficiente distribui-se com base em endividamento que alguém terá de pagar, a bem ou a mal. E vai-se distribuindo cada vez menos por cada vez mais... E não estamos condenados... nunca esqueço esta descoberta do tempo do confinamento acerca da Toyota.

Hermann Simon receia que no seu próprio país a criação de riqueza se torne algo politicamente incorrecto. Assim, lançou recentemente um livro só em alemão sobre o tema.

"se déclarer pour la maximisation des profits constitue aujourd'hui une exhortation bien singulière sinon dangereuse à assumer publiquement pour un chef d'entreprise.

Le profit est pourtant la mesure la plus importante du succès d'une entreprise, a fortiori en situation de crise lorsqu'il est question de sa survie, comme aujourd'hui avec la pandémie de Covid-19.

Or, il tend à devenir un tabou du monde international des affaires, qui devient presque complexé de faire du profit.

...

Concéder à l'air du temps pourrait être dommageable, car maximiser le profit constitue la raison d'être économique de l'entreprise. Et contrairement à une idée reçue, il a une éthique. Nitin Nohria, doyen de la Harvard Business School, dit avec bon sens que « la première responsabilité éthique d'un chef d'entreprise est de faire des bénéfices ». Peter Drucker, le confirme : « Il n'y a pas d'opposition entre profit et responsabilité sociale. L'entreprise qui réalise un profit ne vole pas la société. »

Et il est funeste de tenter d'opposer les actionnaires aux parties prenantes comme on tente de le faire aujourd'hui. La maximisation du profit permet justement de créer un halo vertueux autour de l'entreprise, un « jeu à somme positive » car tout le monde gagne avec une entreprise profitable, qui investit, embauche… et alimente les caisses de l'Etat.

...

Ce rapide diagnostic doit achever de nous convaincre qu'il faut absolument réorienter les entreprises vers la recherche de profitabilité afin de maximiser notamment l'effet des politiques de relance en France et outre-Rhin. Seule la réhabilitation du profit y parviendra…"


quarta-feira, setembro 23, 2020

"only about one quarter are truly profit-oriented"

 "“No company has ever failed from making a profit. Most companies are revenue driven, market share driven, sales driven and only about one quarter are truly profit-oriented.”

So if you want your company to not just survive the Coronavirus pandemic but thrive long into the future, you need to understand that pricing isn’t about the price per se, it’s about value.

More importantly, price is about the value your customers place on your product or service.

“Pricing is about value, or more precisely, the value perceived by the customers. If the customer perceives a high value, he or she is willing to pay a high price. If the perceived value is lower, you have to offer the product at a lower price.”"

Trecho retirado de "Why Pricing Is Not Primarily About Price with Hermann Simon

terça-feira, agosto 11, 2020

Acerca da importância do lucro

Quase todos os dias vejo gente a cometer o erro de confundir lucro com volume de vendas.

O que é o lucro?
"There is only one true definition of profit. Profit is what the owner of a company can keep after the company has fulfilled all obligations towards employees, suppliers, banks and the state. All other profit definitions, such as EBIT, EBITDA and extensions are not profit."
O que é o lucro económico?
"Economic profit is a more demanding benchmark. It’s the profit that exceeds the cost of capital, the so-called weighted average cost of capital. You could say that only economic profit is real entrepreneurial profit. Because if you don’t exceed your costs of capital, you better invest your capital elsewhere and not in your company."
O coronavirus veio ilustrar como o lucro é importante:
"The Corona-crisis brings the hour of truth, and it’s exactly now. Companies which weren’t profitable in the past and have no reserves are the first to fail. After the crisis, profit will become more important than ever because making profit will be critical for recovery, for instance, to pay back incurred debt. That will be the second hour of truth." [Moi ici: Não esquecer um texto pré-crise de 2010 sobre os que não têm constância de propósito. Agora, os mesmos muito preocupados com a sobrevivência das empresas, são os mesmos que em Novembro último estavam de peito feito.]
Lucro, a realidade versus a voz populismo:
"In Germany people believe that the net profit margin, after all costs and all taxes, is 23%. The real margin over many years is 3.4%. Similar in the US. The believe is 32% net profit margin, the reality is 4.9%. The record holders are the Italians. They think that the margin is 38%, the reality is 5%. There are two messages: Real net margins are 5% or less, typically. Furthermore, people overestimate profit margins by 600%. That’s unbelievable."
O que costuma estar por trás de baixas taxas de lucro?
"The main reason are wrong goals: market share, revenue, sales orientation instead of profit orientation. This is exacerbated by conflicting goals between functions, for instance, between finance and marketing." [Moi ici: Estão a ver como posso ficar doente quando vejo ideias estúpidas pulularem sem contraditório?]

O que dizer de lucro e dimensão das empresas?
"large corporations are not more profitable. The median of the net margin of the Fortune Global 500 is 4.49%. This tells us that half of these giants earn less than 4.5%. Most likely they don’t make an economic profit, meaning that they don’t recover their cost of capital. That’s the case for half of the Fortune Global 500. The public perception is misguided by a few profit stars.
...
profit always depends on the combination of three profit drivers and there are only those three: price, volume and cost." 

Trechos retirados de "REIMAGINE THE FUTURE: „Hidden Champions”, Profit, Krise und Zukunft"