"One clue that someone doesn't understand a problem is that they need a large number of variables and factors to explain it.
On the other hand, turning a complex situation into something overly simple is an even more common way of demonstrating ignorance of how the system works.
What we're looking for isn't the number of countable variables. It's the clarity of thought. The coherence of the explanation. The ability to have that explanation hold water even if small inputs change. The explanation might be long, but it makes sense."
Trecho retirado de "Complicated problems rarely require magical explanations"