sábado, outubro 01, 2016

A próxima fase da globalização

Quando vi a imagem:

E, depois, o título "Riding the next wave of globalization: Policy priorities for India", comecei logo a pensar no erro cometido pelo governo malaio, quando tentou aplicar a receita que tinha resultado com a Coreia do Sul uns anos antes. Aplicar na Índia a receita que resultou uns anos antes na China também não vai resultar.
Enganei-me, o artigo é muito bom:
"In order to thrive in the next phase of globalization, India needs to act quickly—and differently.
Our study of globalization, spanning the late 1800s to date, shows that globalization has phases of growth and periods of transition, usually triggered by a crisis event. Although each phase differs from the previous one, all of them follow the same model. This model comprises three forces 
our research shows that this model of globalization is unlikely to repeat itself. New, emerging technologies are expected to see fundamentally different adoption patterns from those seen in the previous waves. And, governance structures will undergo transformative changes, necessitating compliance with multiple, often conflicting, global rules.
Unlike in the past, digital technologies are not “dominated” by one or few countries.
the adoption of digital technologies across various industries will result in more localized manufacturing and globalized services, giving rise to very different trade patterns. Additionally, rapid, large-scale replacement of old manufacturing technologies by newer, digital ones is unlikely, given the growing unavailability of enough skilled workers like robot programmers. Rising income inequality and the need to protect jobs could also bring in stringent regulations, slowing the adoption of disruptive technologies.
Growth: The new model will see a shift away from the “pole” model of economic growth, and vocabulary of developed economies versus EMs, to that of a multipolar world. Countries will have varied growth trajectories, with many EMs becoming less reliant on exports and focusing more on boosting domestic demand. Meanwhile, developed economies and China are likely to grow through greater increases in productivity and de-bottlenecking of the economy through internal structural reforms."

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