"that is how most strategies emerge: Discovery trumps planning.Recordar "O seguro morreu de velho":
So how do we deal with the fact that discovery trumps planning?
One common reaction is to pretend that the success was planned. Of course, after a discovery we naturally try to make sense of what we see working so well. And there is nothing wrong with retrospective rationalization; we do it all the time in business school “case studies” in an effort to learn. The problem is allowing retrospective rationalization to masquerade as a well-planned strategy, ... Such a misunderstanding leads observers to think (wrongly) that great businesses result from a great plan.
Another bad reaction is to wax cynical, surmising that success really just comes down to luck. This conclusion denies the fact that some people are better than others at spotting the opportunities that (luckily) come along. There is much more to discovery than the flip of a coin. When plans produce unanticipated consequences, these look like failures. If you think that leadership means waiting to get lucky, you’ll conclude from such failure that your luck has run out – a self-fulfilling prophecy.
But there is information in those unanticipated consequences for those who know to seek it out. Scott Cook, Intuit’s founder, coaches his people to “savor surprises” – to see deviations from plan as the fountainhead of opportunity. Seen this way, the strategic plan is just step one in the discovery process. Leaders that understand this truth do not pretend to know the solution in advance. Instead, they plan to discover."
"O homem não conhece o futuro. Quem lhe poderia dizer o que há de acontecer em seguida?" Eclesiastes 10, 14.
E no entanto:"Semeia a tua semente desde a manhã, e não deixes tuas mãos ociosas até à noite. Porque não sabes o que terá bom êxito, se isto ou aquilo, ou se ambas as coisas são igualmente úteis."
Eclesiastes 11, 6
Demos o nosso melhor, fizemos as nossas apostas mas temos de estar, temos de permanecer atentos e abertos a mudar, a corrigir o tiro, tendo em conta os sinais que emergem da realidade durante a viagem a caminho do futuro desejado, por que o que vamos obtendo é o futuro real.
Trechos iniciais retirados de "Discovery Trumps Planning, So Plan to Discover"