"The idea behind Scenario Planning is to examine the drivers that will impact the organization in the future and, based on those drivers, create several plausible scenarios related to the decision at hand. For each of those scenarios, the organization then formulates a story that explains the scenario, and that can be used to determine how the company would like to see itself in that scenario.Ao ler isto como não pensar na situação do país... os drivers todos os dias vão pintando um cenário cada vez mais negro e, no entanto, quem de direito continua a contar uma estória da carochinha e recusa agir em conformidade.
“Scenarios are not about predicting the future, rather they are about perceiving futures in the present.” As they look to the future, however, they give decision-makers high-resolution images of what that future might look like, rather than the single weighted metric often used in investment planning. Scenarios are not just about making better decisions in the present instant.
Scenario Planning practitioners try to find leading indicators for each scenario. As Schwartz explains, “It is important to know as soon as possible which of several scenarios is closest to the course of history as it actually unfolds.” In other words, Scenario Planning increases our agility because it keeps all scenarios alive as possibilities, and it trains us to recognize which scenario is occurring and to react accordingly. “Using scenarios,” Schwartz says, “is rehearsing the future. You run through the simulated events as if you were already living them. You train yourself to recognize which drama is unfolding. That helps you avoid unpleasant surprises and know how to act.”"
- Há sete anos que as exportações não caíam no primeiro trimestre;
- Analistas estimam que taxa de desemprego volte a subir no primeiro trimestre; (confirmado)
- Volume de negócios na indústria cai 3,2% em março;
- Portugal paga mais caro para emitir dívida pública a 10 anos
Trechos retirados de "The Art of Business Value", de Mark Schwartz.