"As various central banks loosened monetary policy this year, some economists predicted another cycle of beggar-thy-neighbor currency wars, in which countries race each other to become the cheapest exporter.Entretanto, os que aprenderam a usar o câmbio quando tinham 20 anos, continuam agarrados a essa velha receita. Nunca esquecer as palavras de Napoleão.
But it hasn’t panned out that way, and now a growing body of evidence suggests why: A shift in trade dynamics is blunting the impact of a weak local currency.[Moi ici: À atenção dos que apostam na desvalorização da moeda, como forma de fugir às reformas de que uma economia precisa quando deixa de ser competitiva]
When a country loosens its monetary policy, interest rates fall and investors tend to pull their money out in search of higher yields elsewhere, pushing down the currency’s value.
That is still happening. But the dynamic isn’t affecting trade flows as much as expected. What has changed is where businesses source the things they need to make the products they export. Manufacturers once found most components needed to make their goods at home. Now they increasingly look abroad for such inputs. As a result, exports now incorporate a lot more imports.
The foreign content of Switzerland’s exports, for instance, increased to 21.7% in 2011 from 17.5% in 1995, while the imported content of South Korea’s exports almost doubled, to 41.6% in 2011 from 22.3% in 1995.
Economists at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have used those measures to assess whether currency movements have the same impact they once did on exports and imports. They found that the effect has in fact reduced over time, by as much as 30% in some countries.
Policy makers are beginning to take note. “As countries become more vertically integrated via global value chains, exchange-rate variations will have a diminishing impact on the terms of trade,”"
Trecho retirado de "Why Weak Currencies Have a Smaller Effect on Exports"