terça-feira, julho 23, 2013

Pessoas, não estatísticas

Este artigo "Beware the Cannibal In Your Product Line" permite várias linhas de reflexão, escolho apenas uma:
"2. Analyze individuals, not averages
If you want to measure incremental volume with any accuracy, you need individual-based modelling techniques that take into account the individual spending patterns of each person who will buy the new product, rather than drawing general assumptions from average numbers. As a simple example, the impact of somebody who buys an existing product on a weekly basis and switches about half of their purchases to a new product is far greater than a shopper who buys an existing product only monthly, but ditches it entirely in favor of the new product. Effective individual-based modelling doubles the accuracy of incremental sales predictions when compared to aggregate calculations (see chart)."

Recordar o que já escrevemos aqui há anos sobre olhar os clientes na menina-dos-olhos, sobre evitar a miudagem. Cuidado com os fantasmas estatísticos. (Recordar isto e a Mónica e a Maria)

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