sexta-feira, setembro 04, 2009

A via Espartana (parte II)

Continuado daqui.
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"“This was not a crisis of panic. It is crisis of massive deleveraging. The shadow banking system has disappeared.”
...
The root problem is that the deficit spenders of the Anglosphere, Club Med, and Eastern Europe are being forced to retrench: yet the surplus exporters of Germany and Asia cannot — or will not — create enough demand to compensate. China is growing fast but it has a GDP of $3 trillion, far too small to lift the $40 trillion bloc of OECD economies (North America, Europe, Japan) out of the quagmire."
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"The great error is to think of this as a financial crisis. Bank failures are a symptom, not the cause. He said there was “a structural weakness in global demand” that has been building for a quarter century."
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E o grand finale:
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"Any attempt by the US to inflate its way out of this debt trap risks setting off a “disorderly collapse of the dollar”.
Washington will not opt for this deliberately. Unfortunately, it may drift into such an outcome as the path of least political resistance.
Yes, but I can see plenty of other candidates for this sort of beggar-thy-neighbour somnambulism.
Others may yet beat the US to currency debauchery"
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Trechos de Evans-Pritchard recortados de "Bears still growl at the Sanctum Sanctorum of the policy elites"

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