terça-feira, fevereiro 24, 2009

Irracionalidade na 'no profit zone'

Algures no tempo alguma coisa se partiu e se perdeu.
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Doug Merril no A Fistful of Euros chama a atenção para o seguinte sintoma:
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"Let’s take Bob Lutz, the vice-Chairman of General Motors. In the Jan. 31 Economist, we find him saying GM held on to SAAB for nineteen unprofitable years out of twenty, for a $5 billion loss, selling car after car at a loss of $5K each because … wait for it … “it loved the marque and the cars.”
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I had to read it again: they flushed five billion dollars of their shareholders’ money down the toilet for the personal amusement of the executives, and went on doing it for two decades. More amazing still, Lutz is dumb enough, or arrogant enough, or both to tell exactly that story to a reporter. Most amazing, he seems to still be vice-Chairman!"
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"In the "no profit pattern," once profitable businesses become profitless. There is no profit in the industry, no value to be captured.
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The no profit pattern is not established by one bad year. It is established when the sum of profits from the "good" years in an industry minus the sum of losses in the "bad" years yields zero or negative profit.
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... an overabundance of the same business design within an industry. Every player competes the same way, leading to deteriorating economics and commoditization. Because everyone is competing in the same way, the only abenue left open for differentiation is through price. Each playr tries to lower product to increase market share. Competitors, rather than doing the hard work of business design innovation, return the favor."
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Trecho de Adrian Slywotzky e David Morrison in "Profit Patterns".
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Como é possível persistir na 'no profit zone' por tantos anos?

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